they can’t know what will happen in human trials before start
» Follica will produce a treatment that will be far from full head of elvis
» hair, and it will take them at least 5 years from now on, before it is
» ready to be sold and if proper 3 phase trials are needed even longer than a
» decade.
who can say this atm ? why they need at least 5 years, and who said they need 3 phases? each treatment on which they rely is already approved, so they doesn’t need additional test as phase I,II,III etc…
» You guys never learn.
I never said they will hit the market soon for sure, or it will works for sure, but your arguments are not concrete I think.
Imagine for a second that it’s about 2005 and ICX’s depressing phase#2 reports weren’t out yet.
Imagine if there were a bunch of cases over the years of men accidentally getting injected with their own cloned donor-scalp-area tissue of some sort, and then sprouting patches of thick real hair at the site of the injections . . . I think this would have made us a lot more optimistic about the ICX project being able to work, don’t you?
Well, that’s basically the situation with Follica’s wounding method. There are enough anecdotal cases of wounding-based hair regrowth to believe that at least the THEORY can work. It’s just a big question of whether Follica has really found a consistent & marketable way to do it or not.
And all the drugs & procedures that Follica is using (at least under the current patents) are already approved.
All of this still tells us nothing concrete about effectiveness or timeline to market. However, I think the baseline facts of this operation are worthy of at least as much optimism as any HM effort in the past has ever been.
(If some of you naysayers really can’t live with the idea that HM might actually happen soon, then maybe it would make you feel better to remind yourselves that the new Follica hairs probably won’t have better DHT resistance than the originals did.)
That would mean tested, working, sent out to either dermatologists offices or little “Follica clinics”. This article was dated March 17, 2008. That would be March 2012.
" “If everything goes well, we could have a product in the market in four years,” David Steinberg of PureTech told KnowHow. The firm is confident that it will be a big player in the baldness treatment market, which in the US alone is said to be in the range of $ 2-4 billion. "
“If everything goes well, we could have a product in the market in four years”
It will take them longer (because likehood of everything going well is like winning a lottery)
The odds are that it will fail and never make it to the market (just statistics, most of research fails. In hairloss, pretty much all of it fails on humans)
If we are all lucky and the low odds of success do happen, there’s going to be “a product”. Most probably it will not be full head of quality hair for average nw6 joe.
But yeah, it is true, if everything goes well, then in 4 years theres going to be a product. lol. When was it the last time when everything went well? NEVER???
You need to realize that predicting future is a probability job. And the optimistic guess for a probability of a cure in 4 years is probably < 5%. It may happen, but it’s very unlikely.
they need to just test the wounding protocol over the summer and we will know if it works by this time next year for certain.
they can test it with cyclosporin and without, with wnt added and without, all the various scenarios they are thinking of
it would only take about 25 men with very good close before and after photos to try all embodiments and POSSIBLE embodiments and know for sure which guys had good results, great results and no results with what
then it would be answered in full…if you tried one protocol on three guys a piece, and it didn’t work on any of them, then it doesnt work period. You could try 8 different mixes, etc of topicals with this many men. I’d just opt for internal injestion of the drugs myself over this time in order not to disturb anything happening in the affected dermis and let the bloodstream deliver any medicines up there…
If they choose to dawdle their trials, and only try one method at a time over the next three years…it certainly could take four years to find out.
MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, THEY ARE GOING TO PLAN ON STARTING A CLINIC IN EACH MAJOR CITY ALL ACROSS THE FRUITED PLAIN AND ARE HOPING TO HAVE THEM IN PLACE BEFORE RELEASING ANYTING…IN ORDER TO MAKE ALL THE MONEY FOR THEMSELVES AND ARE DELAYING A RELEASE UNTIL THAT TIME Otherwise, if they think they have a winner now, why not test it and get it over with, and license it so it could be out by next summer delivered by individual dermatologists with their “kits” sent to them to be given to you or administered by them at their offices?
MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, THEY ARE GOING TO PLAN ON STARTING A CLINIC IN EACH MAJOR CITY ALL ACROSS THE FRUITED PLAIN AND ARE HOPING TO HAVE THEM IN PLACE BEFORE RELEASING ANYTING…IN ORDER TO MAKE ALL THE MONEY FOR THEMSELVES AND ARE DELAYING A RELEASE UNTIL THAT TIME
Are you on some kind of drugs?
maybe tomorrow there’s going to be UFO landing here in front of the london eye.
All this hype is a product of desperate balding minds. It can’t be more ridiculous than it is.
» MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, THEY ARE GOING TO PLAN ON
» STARTING A CLINIC IN EACH MAJOR CITY ALL ACROSS THE FRUITED PLAIN AND ARE
» HOPING TO HAVE THEM IN PLACE BEFORE RELEASING ANYTING…IN ORDER
» TO MAKE ALL THE MONEY FOR THEMSELVES AND ARE DELAYING A RELEASE UNTIL THAT
» TIME
»
» Are you on some kind of drugs?
»
» maybe tomorrow there’s going to be UFO landing here in front of the london
» eye.
Can you think of any other rationalization of why Steinberg is predicting four years down the line for release?
This isn’t a process by which different mixes of cells are cultivated, mixed or not mixed, and implanted. It will either work in a human being or it will not. They can try all different mixes of drugs all at once with a batch of volunteers and know if it will make hair in a human being (instead of human skin grafted onto a mouse) all at once and get it over with. I suppose though, since they know HM isn’t in the near future, that they can take their time with it because no real competition is coming soon. That is definitely a possibility.
BTW—I dont use any psychoactive drugs and have a pretty nice head of hair…with receeded temples
a) he’s not a liar
b) he gives the earliest date possible. An event that could be described as A GREAT LUCK.
I mean if you were a realist and were saying well 4 years if everything goes well, but most probably 6. because nothing goes well for us, and chances are we are going to fail. Would that attract any investor or business partner? Business is all about the most optimistic outcomes always, and in research it’s even worse. research is unpredictable, and fails most of the time. If you tried to succeed in research and was telling the investors the truth, they would not give you a single penny as everyone around is lying to them or at least being highly optimistic.
» He’s predicting 4 years because:
»
» a) he’s not a liar
» b) he gives the earliest date possible. An event that could be described
» as A GREAT LUCK.
»
» I mean if you were a realist and were saying well 4 years if everything
» goes well, but most probably 6. because nothing goes well for us, and
» chances are we are going to fail. Would that attract any investor or
» business partner? Business is all about the most optimistic outcomes
» always, and in research it’s even worse. research is unpredictable, and
» fails most of the time. If you tried to succeed in research and was telling
» the investors the truth, they would not give you a single penny as everyone
» around is lying to them or at least being highly optimistic.
Perhaps…however I think Follica is deluding THEMSELVES if they think that “if our first trial doesnt go well, we can try x or y”. This kind of method is probably either going to work or it wont. They aren’t mixing various kinds of cells together for implantation and hoping a hair appears. In animals, only the wound was necessary with nothing else. The body will either pull this trick off or it wont, thus why I want them to put their feet in the water and find out. They could (remotely possible) be attempting to find out if the ectodysplasin genes and the androgen-receptor genes could be fiddled with topically so that the the de noveau hair that forms will be MPB-resistant, and this would certainly take time. I think that would be a mistake though…they need to find out if a hair will form this way PERIOD in people before even worrying about any of that.
As you said, it may not work in real human beings at all. The immune system might kill any new hair follicle trying to form in us. They wont know it until they try it in honest-to-god-people.
I’mk generally a pessimist about HM timelines but I agree with Benji here.
Follica just doesn’t seem to have much to test. Either the existing idea works or they’re back to square one.
I’m sure they’ll probably try to tweak it for effectiveness, but there’s not a whole lot of possibilities to tweak before they hit the “existing drugs & precedures” barrier again. (I mean, they’d be morons not to try as many variables as possible concurrently on different patients. I see no reason why not to. They can totally afford it and they’d just lose lead-time on the competition by waiting.)
Either they can bang out something viable to store shelves in 2-5 (actual) years, or else they have to reinvent the wheel to get it to work and that takes 10+ years of clinical trials. Either way, we should find out something relatively soon.
Let’s not forget that Cotsarelis said just 1 year ago that there could be a product on the market in 2-3 years if everything went perfectly. Of course now that would be 1-2 years. And of course nothing ever goes perfectly, so his saying 2-3 years meant nothing. Now this person is saying 4 years if everything goes well. Just like Cotsarelis, this statement means nothing.
» Imagine for a second that it’s about 2005 and ICX’s depressing phase#2
» reports weren’t out yet.
»
» Imagine if there were a bunch of cases over the years of men accidentally
» getting injected with their own cloned donor-scalp-area tissue of some
» sort, and then sprouting patches of thick real hair at the site of the
» injections . . . I think this would have made us a lot more optimistic
» about the ICX project being able to work, don’t you?
»
» Well, that’s basically the situation with Follica’s wounding method. There
» are enough anecdotal cases of wounding-based hair regrowth to believe that
» at least the THEORY can work. It’s just a big question of whether Follica
» has really found a consistent & marketable way to do it or not.
»
»
»
» And all the drugs & procedures that Follica is using (at least under the
» current patents) are already approved.
»
»
»
»
»
» All of this still tells us nothing concrete about effectiveness or
» timeline to market. However, I think the baseline facts of this operation
» are worthy of at least as much optimism as any HM effort in the past has
» ever been.
»
»
»
» (If some of you naysayers really can’t live with the idea that HM might
» actually happen soon, then maybe it would make you feel better to remind
» yourselves that the new Follica hairs probably won’t have better DHT
» resistance than the originals did.)
»
»
Well stated Cal. This is the main argument of Follica. They are now just trying to harness what has ALREADY worked… before they just didn’t know why. I believe now they are just working on standardizing these conditions in maintaining that “window of opportunity” where stem cells are floating all over the friggen place.
» maybe tomorrow there’s going to be UFO landing here in front of the london
» eye.
»
» All this hype is a product of desperate balding minds. It can’t be more
» ridiculous than it is.
Than take a fuking hike dude. What are you hanging around here for anyway?
the probability of it working in humans is lower than the probability it will not work much.
So I agree to what you said, either it works, and then just basic two phases of a human trial are going to take at least the 4 years (and this is without knowing if the hair is dht resistant), or it does not, and well then it just does not.
Thinking “I’ll have my hair back in 4 years” is dellusion. Probability of this is happening is very low.
Do not put everything on this stupid hair deal. You could be waiting forever. Better strategy is starting to accept being bald.
I can make easy prediction, there are not going to be any clear results from follica, this year, and likely even not the next year. You will not get to know if it worked or how it worked. The best you can get is all that fuzzy statements we got so far from everyone else. Basically you will not get to know results of the summer trials earlier than in 2010 mainly for two reasons, the trials will be late, and results will be disapointing.
It is not about this summer we’re going to know. This summer you will be fantasizing about non existing things as you are now and it will be so for another year at least before you get to know something like “2 volunteers showed significant increased hair counts” (statistically significant), which will tell you once again nothing. It may mean 5 more hair even that is statistically significant.
So 2 years from now on when it fails you are going to jump on just another “here this guy says we can use this” hope wagon.
»
» Than take a fuking hike dude. What are you hanging around here for anyway?
I’m exercising my right to try to stop freaks like “TheGame” from screwing up someone elses youth and jeopardise his career and future in a false belief that hair is everything and that this everything is comming back soon, all he needs to do is to postpone everything and sit at home for just 4 years.
All this has happened on this forum to too many people already.
The past track record does not tell us about the future situation though.
For example, where is the evidence that if Follica’s deal regrows hair, it will just be inconclusive & weak sparse growth at first? I know a lot of previous HM attempts have done this but I see no reason for Follica’s deal to produce this if it works at all. I think you’re just pulling that idea out of the air because it sounds safer than agreeing that Follica’s deal could work visibly well right out of the gate.
It’s like we’re in 1848 and someone is running up to you saying, “Hey, didn’t you hear? They’ve found gold in California at a San Francisco mill!” And then you respond, “Yeah, but there’s never been gold found in Cali before, so there’s no way it could be GOOD gold they just found. Maybe there will be a real goldrush in Cali in the future, but right now they’re surely gonna be finding nothing but small amounts of impure dust for a long time.”
I agree that it’s a BAD idea to postpone your life waiting on any HM method. Including this situation with Follica’s method. But nevertheless, the fact is that Follica’s deal possibly could work very soon and very well.
» I’m exercising my right to try to stop freaks like “TheGame” from screwing
» up someone elses youth and jeopardise his career and future in a false
» belief that hair is everything and that this everything is comming back
» soon, all he needs to do is to postpone everything and sit at home for just
» 4 years.
»
» All this has happened on this forum to too many people already.
I agree that TheGame and nathan screwed with us by saying that there’re going to be major announcements and stuff but nothing happened. I’m also guilty of somewhat wasting my life waiting for TRC and i’ve definitely learned my lesson now. Still, if you look at the reality back then, phase-I was pretty good keeping in mind it was just a safety trial, Intercytex themself hinted at commercialization without phase-III and top it off with nathan/TheGame (whom I always thought worked at Intercytex or personally knew someone working there)…people had every reason to be optimistic.
On the other hand, Follica is compeletely different: most importantly - there isn’t any nathan/TheGame equivalent for Follica spreading rumors, they are a private firm and they already have funding so they don’t really need to give out spiced up results unless obviously they are a bunch of greedy b**tards trying to make some money selling snake oil etc but I doubt that as well.
Remember NW5+ people (including me) need about 5000-10000 follicles on our head to create the illusion of some hair, instead of the present slick bald look. Even if the density isn’t uniform i’d be happy with it because i can go to an HT doctor and move some follicles around thus creating a somewhat uniform effect. Top it off with thickners and i’m good to go - I don’t know what your NW status is but I’m sure a lot of NW5+ people would be happy to see anything on their tops.
Now, there is a good chance Follica may not work but lets not be pessimistic about it, we have heard the real life stories and now the science has proven it in labs as well. The only thing left is to better understand and fine-tune the process to make it cosmetically acceptable for humans and thats what Follica is doing right now before they start the trials.
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