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Who thinks a breakthrough treatment will come within the next 3 years?


I think Tsuji may produce a breakthrough treatment within the next few years.


Define “breakthrough”. If SkinTE can fix my strip scars, that is a big enough breakthrough for me already so yes I think it will come within 3 yrs.


@jarjarbinx – If you mean a true breakthrough that 1, will be able to restore a full head of hair, or very close to it, and 2, that will be commercially available, I am NOT optimistic anymore.

It’s very positive that there are so many developments that seem to be near-breakthroughs… like the recent experimental findings by UCLA about lactate. But, it seems that many of these discoveries are announced, a certain level of hype builds up, there is the inevitable flurry of news articles in British tabloids, showing a picture of the head of a bald man, and announcing a new “cure for Male Pattern Baldness sufferers”, and just as quickly, these discoveries fade away into oblivion, as months and then years go by and we never hear another encouraging word from these researchers on their discoveries. They seem to fall into a black hole.

A major inflection point will come SOON with Replicel. Of all the companies out there that say they’re developing some kind of medical hair loss cure/treatment, Replicel is actually the only one, to my knowledge, that has publicly announced a timeline for rollout of their product on the market (in their case, first it would be the Asian market).

As far as PolarityTE/SkinTE, they have announced a timeline for release, but haven’t specifically said their product will be used to treat hair loss (my guess is they’ll need additional review from the FDA for that – just because they don’t need further FDA approval to use it for burns and skin wounds, doesn’t mean the FDA won’t require additional review and separate approval for them to use it for hair loss). Even if they pursue that, I’m not convinced the product as it currently exists, will be able to regenerate enough hair to make it market worthy.

So, I think the first moment of truth in the next 3 years will be with Replicel – unless something truly amazing breaks with lactate, which is doubtful.

And Replicel isn’t looking too good, because the ONLY trial results they’ve released so far were incredibly disappointing – no better, really, than Finasteride, and for most trial subjects, probably worse.

So overall, I think, barring some amazing discovery by someone, things don’t look too good for the next 3 years.


I agree with roger on this. I’m quite pessimistic about breakthrough treatment any time soon.
Even if Tsuji matches expectations of army of his followers, procedure won’t be available for wider public until at least 2025. I’m pretty sure Tsuji will fail in his first attempt to get this working and around 2020 he will have to revise protocols and start all over again.
I can only see Shiseido in the foreseeable future, hopefully next year. I don’t expect it to be a magic bullet. But compounded treatment potentially could bring most of your hair back.
On the other hand, I have not seen a proof so far that by using one of the methods of intercytex, aderans or replicel you can regrow a single terminal hair on bald patch of skin.


I’m optimistic about PolarityTE’s treatment for regenerating skin. We won’t really know until Q1 2018 human clinical trials since currently they’ve just been done on pigs.

But assuming in the best case scenario it can regenerate all the layers of skin and hopefully terminal hairs, then I think we’ll have our cure.

It seems to me they essentially clone the cells from the biopsy they take, so if they take a small patch from where we have permanently growing hair and multiply those cells, they should produce virtually identical hair on balding areas.

It’s also on their website (screenshot below)-that they’ll look into hair regeneration if they succeed, so it appears they’re thinking about it as well (and people have asked them on FB).

I’m not aware of any other company that has come this close to providing a truly viable cure. Either PolarityTE is an over-hyped dud, or they actually found a way to regenerate skin. The potential treatments are mind-boggling, not just for burn victims, but for scarred skin, hair restoration and more.

It’s backed by a billionaire VC who specializes in biotech startups-I doubt he’d throw a lot of money behind something that was a hoax. Also the FDA fast-tracks treatments such as this so I believe if it works, they will have a treatment for hairloss within 3-5 years (possibly sooner) and this time it’ll be for real. :wink:



Epiker - thanks for that. Yes, I understand that PolarityTE says they will try the procedure for hair regeneration. In fact, their website shows a picture of a man’s head with cells being taken from the scalp. So obviously this application is on their radar.

I’m concerned about what I saw on the patent application, which I posted.

Although their promotional materials emphasize that their technique involves “polarizing” skin tissue – which means that the individual cells are oriented in space so they essentially “know” which direction is “up” and what is “down”, allowing them to spontaneously arrange themselves into viable full-thickness skin, note that on the patent application, it stresses that they are using “minimally polarized” cells – not moderately polarized, not partially polarized, but minimally polarized.

The abstract states, “Provided herein are constructs of micro-aggregate multicellular, minimally polarized grafts containing Leucine-rich repeat-containing G-protein coupled Receptor (LGR) expressing cells”.

The way I read that, they are basing their whole effort to polarize the cells on manipulating the cells to express a receptor which contains a lot of the amino acid leucine, which may result in cells aligning themselves slightly more in one way than another.

To me, this sounds like it will do very little in creating truly “polarized grafts” – maybe this will provide only a few percent of the polarization needed to align all the cell types properly along all axes to create fully-functional skin with functioning skin “appendages” (hair follicles, sweat glands, piloerector muslces, microvasculature, etc.), as they would do in a developing embryo and fetus.

I may be wrong but it doesn’t look too revolutionary on close examination.


Hi Roger_That, thanks for the response. The doctors behind the treatment also said it works better the less they manipulate it since “the human body is the most complex bioreactor” and can incorporate the cells.

I don’t doubt your analysis but I think it’s a bit too early to judge. Maybe this company will turn out to only be useful specifically for treating burns and nothing more. I’m an engineer, not a medical scientist-so I’m taking them at their word as it’s not my field of study.

I think it’s just best to wait and see what transpires over the next 4-6 months or so. It could be another pipe dream or perhaps it could be the ‘holy grail’ we’ve been praying for. No need to upset ourselves over speculation at this time-imho. Peace.


It really depends on the definition of “breakthrough”. I think a number of treatments may come out in the next few years. (Maybe not in the next three years, but in the next five to ten years.) It remains to be seen how effective these are going to be. If you’re expecting a treatment that will be able to restore a full head of hair even if you’re completely bald (and is minimally invasive, FDA approved and affordable), you’re not going to see it in the next three years. I very much doubt you’re even going see that in the next ten years. (I’m 42 years old, and I’m not sure I’ll see that kind of technology in my lifetime. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t put money on it.)
I think a lot of the products that are being developed now will be able to grow some hair (but not a full head). I don’t think they’ve found a “silver bullet” yet. I think this is going to take some time yet (and then it will have to go through FDA trials etc.etc.) I think the kind of treatment where you have a few injections and a few weeks later you’ll have a full head of hair is more than a decade away. (Possibly decades.)
And for anyone who is going to send hateful messages now: Don’t bother (and grow up!) - I’m not interested. You’re entitled to your opinion, I’m entitled to mine.


@News OK fair enough… But you didn’t say “why” you think there will be no successful treatment or breakthrough for all that time… 25 years is a loooooong time.

I think that a breakthrough in reprogramming or activating stem cells, if it happens, could be the development we want. Whether that will happen within 3 years, I doubt… But a lot of researchers now are pursuing that line of study.


Jarjar, what about you? Do you think, within next three years we can have a breakthrough treatment?
What do you think about Shiseido possibly next year starting to offer treatment?


The reason I think it’s going to take a long time is that we don’t have a product that works yet. 10 years ago, we were excited about Intercytex and Aderans. Dr Washenik at one point said that hair loss would be curable before 2010. It’s now nearly 2018, and there is still no product that can easily restore a full head of hair. It’s great to see that lots of researchers are exploring new avenues, such as stem cell reprogramming, but they haven’t found the cure yet. And we know that once they do find it, it will take another ten years or so for the treatment to be FDA approved. (Which means that it’s going to take 10 years plus however long it takes to actually find the cure before the treatment is available.)
Remember - I’m talking about a product that can easily restore a full head of hair even on completely bald people. There may very well be products that come out in the next few years that can regrow SOME hair (“Minoxidil Plus”, if you like).


“25 years is a loooooong time.”

Yes. I’ve been visiting this site since 1998. When I first started coming here, it was believed that Gho was about to take care of the balding problem for all of us. Here we are 19 years later and we don’t have a protocol on the market (from him or anyone else) that even comes close. In fact, the only real advances we can access are Avodart (expensive and not much better than Propecia) and better hair transplant techniques (expensive and limited by donor supply). Maybe something is right around the corner. I hope so. But it is definitely possible for 20 years to pass without any real help arriving in the battle against MPB.


Come to think of it, Propecia was released in 1998, so it’s been nearly 20 years since any new treatment has become available. (I’m not counting stuff like PRP or Nizoral shampoo)

I’ve been searching the web for baldness treatments and cures since 1997, and I never believed Gho’s efforts would amount to anything. I did hope that Aderans might. But I feel we might be getting close finally to better treatments in the next few years.

I also sense the public attitude has changed, in that more people bald or hairy, are being honest with themselves that this is a nasty problem that should be fixed. That change in attitude willl help bring new treatments sooner, because investors and the FDA will take potential treatments more seriously than they did a few decades ago.


Here’s something new:

New gene therapy technique saves boy’s life by growing new skin

Another report about this event said that the boy’s new skin was complete with sweat glands and hair follicles.


Thanks for that @Ahab … with our luck, the medical community will put this on the far back burner as far as leveraging this for hair loss.


Maybe, but with a little bit of luck they might develop it for baldness not because of us, but because of people who lose their scalps in fires and accidents. Because in their minds, that’s somehow more important and different than when we lose our hair.


jarjar, you have been writing posts like this for something close to a decade now… dont u feel ridiculous at some point? Its so clear that you are unable to use reasonable thought, because you are so biased by wishful thinking.

Having said that, In this case I actually do agree that this research is some of the most promising news i’ve heard in quite a while.


No, I don’t feel ridiculous. I feel like I’m a naturally optimistic feller who comments on treatments that seem to have potential. I think I’m making early projections like everyone else here. None of us know for sure what will and won’t work until the trials are completed. Even the companies that are putting them through the clinical trials don’t know for sure if there treatments will work until their treatments get deep into clinical trials. And I also feel like you’re foolish for asserting that my opinion is ridiculous while you’re also agreeing with me.


I do think Tsuji will probably produce a breakthrough in 2020 or 2021. If not, then a few years later in about 2023 - 2025 gene editing will probably do it.

Sorry I haven’t responded sooner but I’ve been very busy lately.


Hey @jarjarbinx glad you’re back. What makes you think it’ll be Tsuji rather than Fukuda? I’m pretty impressed by what I’ve heard of Fukuda’s concept. Although he said it’ll be 10 years before he expects approval, there are still a lot of details we don’t know. Is he taking into consideration Japan’s streamlined laws? And also, what is the source of his stem cells? Are they HF stem cells, embryonic, fetal umbilical, or adipose derived?

Does anyone here have any idea about these questions??