If someone would point a gun at your head today and asked you the following question
“What do you think will be the earliest possible solution? Something injectible or a hair transplantation multiplication technique”
What would you put your life on?
I was coming to this question because today (i was in a fight with someone) i browsed through some old postings etc and thereby i found some User experience reports at a german hair loss board where they described hair regrowth in the donor area with around 30% or so. But the funny part is that nobody (doc and patient) was able to explain it and therefore nobody ever pursued this further.
So i say with all the given respect to research companies, that an injectible solution WONT be the only solution in the future (near future) my bet is on normal transplantation techniques in a redefined way to guarantee donor regrowth.
After my calculations, the minimum of a worst case scenario killer regrowth rate should be around 70%.
With worst case i am talking about a fücked up NW7 candidate in the worst kind of ways possible (a state not many reach fortunately)
With 70% you could actually achieve a NW1 status with an average density of 70 complete in all areas. The average head is as far as i read it around 180 suqare centimeters. So you can do the math what you would actually need to fill this completely with a 70 density. Should be around 12.000 Grafts aka 24.000 hairs, which is one fourth of an average 100.000 single hair head.
Anyway just some math whatever. If we see that even now people can have 9000 or slightly more grafts with “normal” not regenerative techniques, i just wonder how this could actually be used to an infinite extend.
SO anyway my bet is on hair multiplication by surgical procedures and i guess or think that we will hear more about this in the future with those robotic devices.
In the next 1-3 years I just hope to see a phase#2 (FDA or other similar trial) result that demonstrates good regrowth. Something that visibly blows Fin & Minox out of the water. Something that doesn’t spark any more debates about whether it will provide a worthwhile cosmetic improvement or not.
» In the next 1-3 years I just hope to see a phase#2 (FDA or other similar
» trial) result that demonstrates good regrowth. Something that visibly
» blows Fin & Minox out of the water. Something that doesn’t spark any more
» debates about whether it will provide a worthwhile cosmetic improvement or
» not.
yeah thats something id wish to see as well. thats the only way we could get to another level with all this mess.
although minox + finasteride works for some, in advanced stages its pretty much useless. To see something that works for even advanced norwoods (and slick bald areas) would be a true breakthrough as well.
» » In the next 1-3 years I just hope to see a phase#2 (FDA or other similar
» » trial) result that demonstrates good regrowth. Something that visibly
» » blows Fin & Minox out of the water. Something that doesn’t spark any
» more
» » debates about whether it will provide a worthwhile cosmetic improvement
» or
» » not.
»
» yeah thats something id wish to see as well. thats the only way we could
» get to another level with all this mess.
»
» although minox + finasteride works for some, in advanced stages its pretty
» much useless. To see something that works for even advanced norwoods (and
» slick bald areas) would be a true breakthrough as well.
Thanks for your honest answers. The reason why i started this thread was to see what people think and to show a certain person here that NOT all people here are stupid as he claims them to be.
You guys gave pretty good answers, and realistic ones. Thanks.
there’s zero chance of anything within 3 years, unless histogen is approved within that time frame, which is doubtful as they have only just started or planning to start phase 1 NOW. your looking at 4 years for that to get past phase 3!
» there’s zero chance of anything within 3 years, unless histogen is approved
» within that time frame, which is doubtful as they have only just started or
» planning to start phase 1 NOW. your looking at 4 years for that to get past
» phase 3!
they have finished phase1. now theres gonna be phase I/IIa afaik. (2a means dosing)
so by december 2012 we could have quite good idea if increased dosages or compounding works.
there seems to be some delay with the trials already as originaly they said early 2011 now its summer 2011.
» there’s zero chance of anything within 3 years, unless histogen is approved
» within that time frame, which is doubtful as they have only just started or
» planning to start phase 1 NOW. your looking at 4 years for that to get past
» phase 3!
Its fascinating that people right now are very snobbish Everyone is putting attention to injection stuff rather then surgical solutions
» » there’s zero chance of anything within 3 years, unless histogen is
» approved
» » within that time frame, which is doubtful as they have only just started
» or
» » planning to start phase 1 NOW. your looking at 4 years for that to get
» past
» » phase 3!
»
» they have finished phase1. now theres gonna be phase I/IIa afaik. (2a means
» dosing)
»
» so by december 2012 we could have quite good idea if increased dosages or
» compounding works.
»
» there seems to be some delay with the trials already as originaly they said
» early 2011 now its summer 2011.
that will be the earthquake in japan wont it, anyway im sure the last time i looked at their web sight they said they were starting phase 1 in japan early 2011 and there was another 2 phases after that, the single injection to determine safety wasn’t phase 1 was it??
» » there’s zero chance of anything within 3 years, unless histogen is
» approved
» » within that time frame, which is doubtful as they have only just started
» or
» » planning to start phase 1 NOW. your looking at 4 years for that to get
» past
» » phase 3!
»
» Its fascinating that people right now are very snobbish Everyone is
» putting attention to injection stuff rather then surgical solutions
»
» Fascinating indeed
whats fascinating about people only willing to consider surgery as a last resort? or snobbish for that matter? sounds like normal common sense to me…
» » » there’s zero chance of anything within 3 years, unless histogen is
» » approved
» » » within that time frame, which is doubtful as they have only just
» started
» » or
» » » planning to start phase 1 NOW. your looking at 4 years for that to get
» » past
» » » phase 3!
» »
» » Its fascinating that people right now are very snobbish Everyone is
» » putting attention to injection stuff rather then surgical solutions
» »
» » Fascinating indeed
»
»
» whats fascinating about people only willing to consider surgery as a last
» resort? or snobbish for that matter? sounds like normal common sense to
» me…
there was no offense on my part, i was just curious and its fascinating
»
» that will be the earthquake in japan wont it, anyway im sure the last time
» i looked at their web sight they said they were starting phase 1 in japan
» early 2011 and there was another 2 phases after that, the single injection
» to determine safety wasn’t phase 1 was it??
they plan to do phase I/II in Singapore (and thats not japan at all). so i dont think that the quake had any impact on the delay.
the delay is probably usual “things always take longer than planned” phenomenon.
the single injection safety was phase1, at least thats how they refered to it in 2008 when they talked about starting a trial.
All in all the fact that after they sucessfuly finished first phase1 trial, they again start another phaseI/II. it seems that they want to try larger doses or different mixture of wnt as single injection before they go wilder with it.
» »
» » that will be the earthquake in japan wont it, anyway im sure the last
» time
» » i looked at their web sight they said they were starting phase 1 in
» japan
» » early 2011 and there was another 2 phases after that, the single
» injection
» » to determine safety wasn’t phase 1 was it??
»
» they plan to do phase I/II in Singapore (and thats not japan at all). so i
» dont think that the quake had any impact on the delay.
»
» the delay is probably usual “things always take longer than planned”
» phenomenon.
»
» the single injection safety was phase1, at least thats how they refered to
» it in 2008 when they talked about starting a trial.
»
» All in all the fact that after they sucessfuly finished first phase1 trial,
» they again start another phaseI/II. it seems that they want to try larger
» doses or different mixture of wnt as single injection before they go wilder
» with it.
you seem to be correct, they have seriously changed their web sight since i last looked at it a month ago, they were saying the clinical status for the hair stimulating complex had not even started phase 1 but finished the pre clinical trial, they have also stopped the sale of the skin formula and also have no link that i can see to there human stem cell conditioned growth medium.
well ill take a year of my estimate then 3 years minimum.
» Its fascinating that people right now are very snobbish Everyone is
» putting attention to injection stuff rather then surgical solutions
»
» Fascinating indeed
Because surgery sucks. It’s invasive, expensive, uncertain. Plain simple as that.
My prediction for the next 3 years: delays, delays delays … I believe we will be at the same point as for now, that means the eternal “5 years away” mirage.
Hope i’m wrong, although i know i’m right.
I think the beginning of a serious commercially available solution is 10-15 years away anyway.
» » Its fascinating that people right now are very snobbish Everyone is
» » putting attention to injection stuff rather then surgical solutions
» »
» » Fascinating indeed
»
» Because surgery sucks. It’s invasive, expensive, uncertain. Plain simple as
» that.
»
» My prediction for the next 3 years: delays, delays delays … I believe we
» will be at the same point as for now, that means the eternal “5 years away”
» mirage.
»
» Hope i’m wrong, although i know i’m right.
»
» I think the beginning of a serious commercially available solution is 10-15
» years away anyway.
the fact that u may well be right pretty sucks what are we doing here. 15 years of waiting? LOL Ill be 47.
Thats why iam so glad that with surgical restoration as well we can get great achievements. Bring donor regeneration up to 80% and we are ready to strike
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Everyone is putting attention to injection stuff rather then surgical solutions 
what are we doing here. 15 years of waiting? LOL Ill be 47.