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The \'other\' question


#1

It would be great indeed if HM becomes a viable means of restoring hair; we all agree. But let’s not forget none of us will benefit from the technology unless we can afford it. What, then, do we know of likely costs? From the ‘same price as a hair transplant’ (hair for hair?) we now have an ominous 50,000 pound (UK) price tag figure from Higgins (a full head of hair? still d—n expensive). So, the question I ask is: what can we surmise about costs by pooling together the little scraps of info. coming our way?

Regards,
Facts 21


#2

cellular science is costy business … velveta or how that thing was called, sold quite well, but the manufacturing costs were so high that it could not generate significantly interesting money for the company and at the same time being competitive with other options.

I will skip wig business, as it is pretty obvious that wigs will never be massively popular. the wig guys miss one very wrong aspect of man’s life.

looks are important for man, but there is one more important thing that woman see attractive on man. it’s that mix of their character / being self / adaptability / readiness to face & overcome any situation that potentialy may come. and man in a wig is pretty limited. you can’t do just anything, you are tied to some company, you have to visit them every couple of weeks, you definately could not just go to africa and live there couple of years … you know what I mean? Once man gets his wig he’s lost all this attractiveness to woman. he is bound and marked. she knows that this man is worse than bald one. bald one may have worse looks, but still if he is strong enough he can have all the attractive positives I mentioned above. This is why most of man would rather be bald, than to wear a wig.

so in hair business, competition is pretty bad. I mean no nw6 can have full head of natural hair, ever. it’s not about money, its about the fact that it is still imposible to deliver. It might now look that it will be competitive so the price might be low enough. yeah but competitiveness is not the only aspect. There is only one simple goal in every business. To generate money.

So to get an idea what the price could be, one should just leave all feelings behind and just imagine that he has developed ICX procedure and his main goal is to get most of the product & get the best income possible.

let’s suppose that ICX-TRC will be real breakthrough, that is easy to apply (no drilling holes, just injection of fluid, easily done in few hours), and that it can grow full head of hair in just few sessions (3 for example). All this is unknown and I personaly see this as wishful thinking but … let’s just assume that.

now what we know about the price? what we can tell?

  • it can’t be too cheap because manufacturing costs will be quite high
  • they do not have to worry about competition
  • there will be significantly more customers. many customers now do not go for ht because it is painful, takes forever, there are only few surgeons who can do it right, and if your hair loss is advanced, you will spend thousands and thousands of dollars, and in the end, you will still be pretty much bald.
  • for many of these customers, price is not a problem, they do not ask for HT because they could not afford it, they do not aks for it because ht can’t give them what they would like.

now there are two options icx can go:

  1. hire many people, build many facilities, and bring hm to masses for a price that masses could afford. this has a problem that the price can’t really be too low. it will always be at least several thousands for one go because the production costs are quite high. question is, how many people would go for it for a price of $10k ? and how many of them would icx be able to serve? 100 thousands a year? … lets assume that manufacturing & surgery costs were 5k (thi is maybe too optimistic, but in theory injection of fluid could be quicker / easier than todays ht’s), and 5k is income to icx. 100 thousands * 5k is 500M a year.

  2. set the price relatively high ($100k), now the question is, how many people will now ask for it? will the number of customers icx can serve be the same / similar to the price of $10k? lets assume that only 10 thousand customers would ask for the procedure every year. the manufacturing costs are the same (5k), income per hm session is 95k. 10000 times 95000 is 950M!

now which of the two options will businessman take? the first one or the second? it is pretty clear that the second. it would generate more money, and the company would have to put less effort to get the money (no big investment to new facilities & staff needed, less of administration …)

in order to make the first approach more advantageous to the second one, there would have to be really huge demand, and the manufacturing/delivering costs would have to be pretty low.

I really can’t tell where is the sweet spot for icx, my personal guess is that it could cost ±$50k (still assuming that it would work so well), but I’m sure that if icx-trc works, they will put their own financial analysis into it, and do the math themselfs. their goal will be to find the sweet spot where the income is the best they can get.

Competition will bring the price lower because it will force the companies to try hard to lower their manufacturing costs. this will allow them to sell to more for less.


#3

I think the real question a lot of people will have to worry about isn’t how much HM costs per se, but how much it will cost them to fly over to England and live there for a few weeks while getting the procedure done, and to pay for everything (procedure, hotel, clinic, transportation, living expenses) in UK pounds which are now 2:1 to the US dollar.

Yep, you heard me right, fly to the UK and live there for at least 3-4 weeks, and probably make fairly frequent and substantial trips back there for a while after that, as well, to be monitored (unless the monitoring can be done somewhere in the US, like at a Bosley clinic, since Bosley does have an agreement with ICX).

What I’m getting at is that, based on everything we know now, all the developments and the trends, and in particular the fact that neither ICX nor ARI are currently doing ANY clinical trials in the US, it appears that the FDA has slowed down the trials process in the US to a crawl.

And I think this means that, when HM is finally approved and made available, it will be in the UK, and/or parts of Europe FIRST, and will probably take at least 2 more years, maybe 3, to be approved and available in the US.

My hunch is that the HT industry is behind this situation, and has filed letters with the FDA recommending that they go very slow with what the HT industry is probably saying is a “risky” procedure that needs much more scrutiny (even though all the evidence shows it’s very safe).

I don’t want to have to fight with all the morons on here who’ll say, “But the HT industry will welcome HM and they have the most to gain from it!!”

WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

Only a select few parts of the US hair transplantation industry will gain from HM. Only a tiny minority – really only Bosley and maybe a few other scattered outliers who have some kind of arrangement with Bosley, which I predict will be very rare (mainly because Boz has virtually no incentive to do this, and ICX’s deal with Boz appears to be pretty exclusive for North America – thus they won’t be licensing their procedure to every Tom, Dick and Harry HT surgeon in the US and Canada.)

For the rest of the HT surgeons and clinics in the US, HM will be an unmitigated catastrophe – a financial disaster of epic proportions which will completely wreck them. It will even divert standard HT work away from the HT docs, towards Bosley, because Bosley will control ALL of the HM in the US, both ICX and later ARI (of which Bosley is a subsidiary/partner).

In short, HM is a HUGE “disruptive technology” in the existing hair restoration market, which will have major financial implications for all surgeons and practices currently making millions from HT.

HM will destroy their businesses, and they know this.

Thus there is a HUGE incentive for the organized US HT industry to mess with HM at the FDA level… and I think they are doing it.

Good thing they don’t have quite as much power as an organized lobby in the UK. They do have some power there, but not the leverage they would have here where these “doctors” can just send “letters of concern” to the FDA based on their skewed medical views and opinions, and literally slow down the trials process (and, by extention, the approval process), to a crawl, all behind the scenes WITHOUT THE PUBLIC KNOWING ABOUT IT.

And Dr. Washenik, ARI, ICX, et al. can’t say a word about all this behind-the-scenes maneuvering, because that would be considered unduly interfering in the supposedly “unbiased” FDA review process. That’s why you’ll never hear a word about it from any of the HM folks.

So the real question I pose to all AMERICANS on this forum, is how much are you ABLE TO SPEND to do the following:

  1. Leave your work and fly to the UK or even some Eastern European country, say, where they’re able to get HM approved first

  2. Stay there for a rather extended period (minimum 3 weeks, for hair extraction, culturing, and cell implantation) and pay for everything, including living expenses, in the highly-valued British pound

  3. After that’s done, return for regular visits for them to monitor your hair growth, which they will probably want you to do

Personally, I am financially able to do this (I’m not a millionaire, people, but I can do it, although it’s pretty damn inconvenient both financially and time-wise)… but how many Americans here can?

This is not to say that HM will NEVER be approved in the US; just look for it to be approved a good 2-3 years AFTER it is approved in the UK or certain countries in Europe, because of our homegrown megalomaniacs in the American HT industry mucking around with the FDA.

So if you can’t do all the above, you’ll just have to wait maybe 2-3 extra years while HM IS COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE SOMEWHERE ELSE… while the Brits, Germans, French, etc. are getting HM, and YOU’RE still balding…

A wonderful country we live in, no?

God Bless America!


#4

On the other hand, our country has some very nice parts and we would appreciate your yankee dollars. Anyway if you’re willing to slum it in a backpackers hostel (my sister works at one of these places and they are OK actually), and not go out to restarants every night then it’s really only a tiny fraction of what you will be paying for the procedure anyway.

As far as the very strong pound at the moment, well yeah looks like you guys got the rough end of the deal there.

Now you’ll have to excuse me, I have to go purchase some cheap american goods :o)


#5

» On the other hand, our country has some very nice parts and we would
» appreciate your yankee dollars. Anyway if you’re willing to slum it in a
» backpackers hostel (my sister works at one of these places and they are OK
» actually), and not go out to restarants every night then it’s really only a
» tiny fraction of what you will be paying for the procedure anyway.
»
» As far as the very strong pound at the moment, well yeah looks like you
» guys got the rough end of the deal there.
»
» Now you’ll have to excuse me, I have to go purchase some cheap american
» goods :o)

yeah … for 300-400pounds you can rent a room and stay here whole month (yeah that means you would be sharing house/flat with some other renters), if you give up on rather expensive beer and restaurants, the overall monthly expense of “living” in the uk, will be around 500 pounds. add another 500 hundred for a flight & traveling expenses.

If it really works, HM price can be somewhere between 10-50 thousand (yeah british pounds still :/, hopefuly rather somewhere in the middle or lower half and not too close or above 50k) … so who cares about the extra 1k??

Of course the biggest deal is that fact that you will have to leave and take few weeks off. Which can be rather problem for an american, because as far as I know you have quite a few days of paid holiday every year, don’t you? (in uk you normaly have 4-5 weeks of paid holiday every year).

And btw, once HM proves itself to be a reality of near future, it’s only matter of time till some politician does the math himself, and calculates that the amount of income lost on taxes is not totaly insignificant and thus the approval coud even be rushed forward and I doubt it would take aditional 2-3 years for the us. My guess is one year. So 2012 or 2013, who cares :slight_smile:


#6

» Of course the biggest deal is that fact that you will have to leave and
» take few weeks off. Which can be rather problem for an american, because
» as far as I know you have quite a few days of paid holiday every year,
» don’t you? (in uk you normaly have 4-5 weeks of paid holiday every year).

You are correct if by “quite a few” you mean “very few”. I think that’s what you meant (although “quite a few” to an American means “quite a lot” – weird, no?)

Anyway, the US is the only industrialized democracy in the world that has NO (read, ZERO) legal requirement for employers to give employees ANY paid holidays, except for federal legal holidays like Presidents Day or Martin Luther King Day. There is no such thing as mandatory paid holiday – or, as we say, “vacation” – time here. It depends wholly on the agreement you make with your employer, and usually employers offer very little paid vacation – usually something like 1-3 days per year, not including “sick days”.

Contrast this with most all the countries of Europe, where the government mandates, by law, that employers grant anywhere from 2-6 full weeks of paid vacation time, per year, to every employee.

That is totally unheard of in the US, unless you’re a union member and your union has negotiated longer vacations – and today, only about 13% of the workforce is unionized.

Thankfully, I am self-employed and take time off when I want to. Most Americans don’t pause from their daily routines long enough to realize how brutal our system is here.


#7

» »
» That is so right. Its despicable what big corporations can get away with. Low level entry employees at many places now just get Christmas and Easter off (because all the customers are off too) and perhaps one week vaction a year altogether.

Corporate America will never police itself. We as a republic have to control them with LAWS, and the penalties for breaking those laws should be fierce for the CEO’s and management. Everybody should get two weeks paid vacation a year. Everybody except the vital public services should get Christmas, Christmas Eve, New Years, Easter, Labor day, Fourth of July, Thanksgiving, Memorial day, off. Period.

None of this is going to happen with the Bush Monkey in the White House though. Dammit I hate that man.


#8

Bush is not the problem (though I agree he is disgusting).

Politicians are just puppets since President Wilson (included). Info on this here: http://iamthewitness.com/Freedman-Jewish-Pawns.html

Paul Warburg (one of the conspirator behind the Federal Reserve) an American banker and financial adviser to Franklin D. Roosevel.

He said talking to the Senate: “We shall have World Government, whether or not we like it. The question is only whether world government will be achieved by consent or by conquest.” (Feb. 17, 1950, to the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations).

So don’t blame politicians but their masters.

Find out about it.


#9

» None of this is going to happen with the Bush Monkey in the White House
» though. Dammit I hate that man.

Earlier in his presidency, Bush spoke at a rally in Ohio, I believe, and then questions were taken from the audience. A young single mother told Bush about how she has to work THREE low-wage jobs just to survive.

What was Bush’s response?

“Hmmm… Why, that’s uniquely American!” he said with his usual smirk.

Well, yeah, it is uniquely American, Bush. You took the words right out of my mouth.

And Dubya’s wack, un-Christian policies of giving permanent tax cuts to the mega-wealthy, while systematically abandoning the poor and letting them fall further behind, contributes greatly to making this a uniquely American plight.

In Europe, a single mom with a high school education works one job as a clerk and can support herself and her kids.

In the Third World, a single mom with no education works a subsistence job grinding cornmeal and can support herself and her kids (very modestly, but they still eat).

In the USA, a single mom with a high school education has to work THREE minimum-wage jobs and can barely support herself and her kids, with high rent and gas costs.

So tell me again, because I forgot… just how are we the “greatest country in the world”?

I think it was George Carlin who said, “They call it the American Dream because you have to be sleeping to believe in it.”


#10

» It depends wholly on the agreement
» you make with your employer, and usually employers offer very little paid
» vacation – usually something like 1-3 days per year, not including “sick
» days”.

Wow thats tougher than I thought. I still have 23 days to take this year (+ some bank holidays of course). What a luxury!


#11

Da! Comrade Lenin couldn’t have said it better himself. And now for some Party approved slogans:

» In Europe, a single mom with a high school education works one job as a
» clerk and can support herself and her kids.

Double digit unemployment for everyone!

» In the Third World, a single mom with no education works a subsistence job
» grinding cornmeal and can support herself and her kids (very modestly, but
» they still eat).

No running water and mud huts is the standard of living for the masses!

» And Dubya’s wack, un-Christian policies of giving permanent tax cuts to
» the mega-wealthy, while systematically abandoning the poor and letting
» them fall further behind, contributes greatly to making this a uniquely
» American plight.

Taking away from those who produce and spend the most is the only sure way to eliminate poverty once and for all! This is why America is the only nation that has a uniquely poor populous, while other great nations, such as France, Germany, Italy, and yes, even the nations of Africa, where everyone subsist in a wonderful life, have virtually eliminated poverty altogether and can provide for all their citizen’s needs.

» I think it was George Carlin who said, “They call it the American Dream
» because you have to be sleeping to believe in it.”

The only true American Dream is to have the government provide everything for all! Free HM for everyone! Even those who have hair!


#12

» » »
» »
» And Dubya’s wack, un-Christian policies of giving permanent tax cuts to
» the mega-wealthy, while systematically abandoning the poor and letting
» them fall further behind, contributes greatly to making this a uniquely
» American plight.
»

I still don’t understand why those that don’t pay taxes can’t receive more of a tax cut;-) ? I wish someone would explain how this would work or is this just the new liberal form of modern math?

» »
» In the USA, a single mom with a high school education has to work THREE
» minimum-wage jobs and can barely support herself and her kids, with high
» rent and gas costs.
»
»

With just a high school education, she maybe should have put some forethought into having those kids in the first place. I get tired of those that make their bed and I’m supposed to lay in it.