I’ve charted the mood of this forum since I landed here 10 years ago.
This forum goes in a cycle from despair to hope and finally hype every 5 years like a sine wave. The pattern repeats like clock work - only with new characters.
Right now we are trending in this cycle towards hope. New doctors, characters, companies, technologies, media fanfare…etc is building the hope momentum. The mood is on the upswing and soon the hype of an impending cure which is always right around the corner will be upon us.
The mania will reach its peak and blow its top around 2015 according to my calculations. Then we’ll fall off a cliff into deep despair. Guys will commit suicide around that time once they realise they will die bald and there is no cure coming.
From then on its another 5 year wait for the spark of hope to rekindle the cycle all over.
I think we crested the peak of the sine wave about 2-3 years ago. At that point it was all sunshine and roses: Aderans was marching on, Replicel looked so promising, Follica was still a possibility, Histogen was 2-3 years from market, Gho was looking like he could provide unlimited (or very expanded) donor, Acell for expanded donor, Acell with plucking etc… Potential was everywhere. People were saying 2015 as the absolute latest.
Since that time, we’ve crested the peak and begun the long descent down the other side of the hill, gaining momentum as we plummet headlong into the dark trough where hope goes to die and bald men weep.
Nothing has come to fruition: Aderans is dead, Replicels results were a bust, Acell turned out to be far less than the s_cam artist Hitzig made it out to be, Gho claims look to be BS, Follica is nothing more than a website, Histogen has been able to complete only one phase of clinical trials, and the forums have become infested with con-men (the niggly Nigam is my personal fav), snake oil salesmen and nutjobs pushing ridiculous theories on the cause of MPB.
It is bleak on the MPB front. Minoxidil, Propecia, Nizoral, and the most effective of them all, Acceptance, are what we have as we move into 2014. Who would’ve thought…
You see comments like this on the boards a lot. It’s understandable. People put all of their hopes in for example a Dr Nigam and when it turns out he didnt have anything other than some photoshopped pictures, they give up all hope and think we’ll never get there. They don’t understand science nor can they interpret current milestones. Cause if they did and they did read those quotes from that article by Washenik that I just posted, people wouldn’t dare to say that.
Really, come on man. Several independent research groups have succeeded already at generating grafts from cells !! This is something we didnt even dare to dream of 5 years ago and now it’s reality. Not just 1 researcher. Several independent research groups did it !! Forget about dr Nigam, read up on the real scientists and you’ll get hope again. They’re so close !
[quote][postedby]Originally Posted by Lindo[/postedby]
Several independent research groups have succeeded already at generating grafts from cells !! This is something we didnt even dare to dream of 5 years ago and now it’s reality. Not just 1 researcher. Several independent research groups did it !! Forget about dr Nigam, read up on the real scientists and you’ll get hope again. They’re so close ![/quote]
I think the scientific advancements that you’ve highlighted here are great! However, these will not be available in time for anyone over the age of 30. These efforts are in the very earliest stages of research. As we’ve seen time and time again, it can take as long as 10 yrs (Replicel example) just to get from basic research to the clinic trial phase! And trials, as we’ve seen, require money (takes time to acquire), are fraught with technical and legal difficulties and delays (see Histogen or Replicel for nice examples) and even when they go smoothly (almost never) take 7-10yrs to get through.
The next generation will have access to amazing treatments, i don’t doubt that. But, for those of us further along the path, things are very much in doubt right now.
[quote][postedby]Originally Posted by Lindo[/postedby]
Several independent research groups have succeeded already at generating grafts from cells !! This is something we didnt even dare to dream of 5 years ago and now it’s reality. Not just 1 researcher. Several independent research groups did it !! Forget about dr Nigam, read up on the real scientists and you’ll get hope again. They’re so close !
[postedby]Originally Posted by Mr. Z[/postedby]
I think the scientific advancements that you’ve highlighted here are great! However, these will not be available in time for anyone over the age of 30. These efforts are in the very earliest stages of research. As we’ve seen time and time again, it can take as long as 10 yrs (Replicel example) just to get from basic research to the clinic trial phase! And trials, as we’ve seen, require money (takes time to acquire), are fraught with technical and legal difficulties and delays (see Histogen or Replicel for nice examples) and even when they go smoothly (almost never) take 7-10yrs to get through.
The next generation will have access to amazing treatments, i don’t doubt that. But, for those of us further along the path, things are very much in doubt right now.[/quote]
It will be 8-10 years, agreed. Our generation will be the last that suffered from this disease. But we already have way more options than our parents had, like (scarless) FUE transplants. And even if you’re 30, your hair will still matter to you when you’re 40.
Freddie and MrZ have pretty much sum up what’s going on here, a never ending cycle…hype on something…this something don’t become real…down…and the cycle is reapeating with others, fresh meat…ect…
[quote][postedby]Originally Posted by Hairquest1[/postedby]
Freddie and MrZ have pretty much sum up what’s going on here, a never ending cycle…hype on something…this something don’t become real…down…and the cycle is reapeating with others, fresh meat…ect…[/quote]
Hehe. You guys are funny. When some ‘wonder doctor’ from India came out of nowhere to these forums with a bunch of photoshopped pictures everybody went crazy. And when a year later it turns out he had nothing, everybody gets depressed and a cure never will be found.
Don’t focus on BS like that. Focus on the facts. And the facts are that 4 independent groups of researchers recently all independently (using different methods) succeeded at generating follicles from a bunch of cells. And another important fact is that a group of Spanish researchers are going to start clinical trials next year already with stem cell generated skin. This is going to be a huge thing cause it’s going to be the perfect model to run all kinds of tests on.
Personally I think the last few issue’s will be resolved in the next 3 years. After which we’ll need to get into trials 6-7 years (Tsuji might even start their trials earlier). Of course, anything can happen, patients could develop cancer, who knows. Like Mr Z noted, usually nothing goes perfect right away. But ignoring all progress, all huge steps that recentely have been made, and claiming that a cure will never be found that’s just silly.
[quote][postedby]Originally Posted by alecbaldone[/postedby]
did Nostradamus say anything about balding?[/quote]
Perhaps he was not able to see that far out to the year 3000 - when no doubt someone will still be saying the cure is just 5 years away.
He was bald and practically all portraits show him with a beanie cap on his head. Perhaps he was trying to tell us baldies of the future something with that beanie…
hahaha. Probably right, his predictions couldnt see out to the year 3000. This is the first time in a while Im not excited about some cure in the pipeline. The pipeine is empty
[quote][postedby]Originally Posted by alecbaldone[/postedby]
hahaha. Probably right, his predictions couldnt see out to the year 3000. This is the first time in a while Im not excited about some cure in the pipeline. The pipeine is empty[/quote]
What cure in the pipeline ? There’s never been any. Only some techniques to stimulate your hairgrowth somewhat. The REAL cure is now just around the corner. with only one last step left. Read Tsuji’s and Jahoda’s paper to understand why.
This forum is kind of useless its kind of turning out like bald truth and hairloss help forum I starting to think there will never be a cure just meaning less talk and stupid studies and findings that will never see the light of day
[quote][postedby]Originally Posted by lalyric[/postedby]
This forum is kind of useless its kind of turning out like bald truth and hairloss help forum I starting to think there will never be a cure just meaning less talk and stupid studies and findings that will never see the light of day[/quote]
‘Stupid’ studies and findings are incremental to our knowledge. Rarely are huge leaps made in science. This goes for all fields, not just solving hair loss.
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