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HM may still be 5 years away


#1

I’d like to bring the discussion back to HM and it possible developments.

My question centers on assuming that in the next few months, HM developed by Intercytex will prove to be a viable solution to hair loss. Additionally, like ICX-RHY, ICX-TRC will be guided by less restrictive medical regulations allowing for limited release in the U.K. mid 2008.

But it doesn’t end here - HM is not at our door step yet and there may still be a few years in-between before the “average Joe” (you and me) can go to a clinic for a procedure. I’d like to center this topic on the possible road blocks Intercytex faces in penetrating the mass market.

Here’s a couple I’ve come up with:

If limited release occurs, this will take place of phase III trials but like most trials for ICX-TRC, study can take anywhere from 6-12 months.

Medical/Legal Restrictions…
I’m sure that if large companies like Aderans jumps on the Intercytex supplier band wagon, a few strings can be pulled to speed things up - but again this may take a good amount of time to resolve.

Manufacturing capabilities
Intercytex said that they are creating an automation system, - this system - from what I remember reading in the past - may only handle up to 200 differing cells growing in its incubation cambers at a time. Given the 4-6 weeks needed to culture a sufficient number of cells… - this doesn’t seem like much capacity considering Aderans/Bosely performs over 10,000 procedures a year which at the time only accounted for roughly %10 of the HT market which further accounts as a very small fraction of those wishing to have their hair back.
Assuming successful sales of Vavelta generating revenues, Intercytex will be able to raise more capital to build up their production capacity but again this will all take time.

I’m sure there are others so feel free to add. I don’t mean to put a damper on anyone’s spirits but even if this proves to work, we will still have to wait. These men are smart and I have a feeling that they’ll hit the market as fast and as efficiently as possible.

P.S. The 5 years is not my predicted ETA - I just chose it because it seems to be everybody’s favorite…


#2

hm is always 5 years away, by definition.

hehehehe!!!


#3

Dudes I just got a fresh copy of the ISHRS monthy “Forum” magazine. There are two articles stating HM research. Do you guys/gals want me to type it out here???


#4

» Dudes I just got a fresh copy of the ISHRS monthy “Forum” magazine. There
» are two articles stating HM research. Do you guys/gals want me to type it
» out here???

Yes, thanks.


#5

Im guessing HM will be availed somewhere in England before here because the trials are happening there.

I wonder if the product got launched in England and sold well, replete with men flying over to get it, whether it would influence the FDA into expediting a review process for it. Of course, if the trials dont go well in the near future, those considerations get pushed back anyway and the point is moot.

Like many, I’m just hoping for a reasonably successful phase 2 with a decent amount of hair per inject grown. I’d feel very confident about it if that takes place.


#6

Assuming Phase II is successful (both preliminary and additional reports), then I am frankly not concerned about regulations, etc. Why? This is what will happen: news stories of a handful of guys getting nice heads of hair by going to England. Bald/balding men around the globe read these stories. Demand skyrockets for procedures. FINALLY big investors pay attention and services are offered elsewhere in England, not to mention expedited approval in USA. So in the end I truly think it’ll depend on the resutls we see for Phase II and beyond.

All the best,
BB

» I’d like to bring the discussion back to HM and it possible developments.
»
» My question centers on assuming that in the next few months, HM developed
» by Intercytex will prove to be a viable solution to hair loss.
» Additionally, like ICX-RHY, ICX-TRC will be guided by less restrictive
» medical regulations allowing for limited release in the U.K. mid 2008.
»
» But it doesn’t end here - HM is not at our door step yet and there may
» still be a few years in-between before the “average Joe” (you and me) can
» go to a clinic for a procedure. I’d like to center this topic on the
» possible road blocks Intercytex faces in penetrating the mass market.
»
» Here’s a couple I’ve come up with:
»
» If limited release occurs, this will take place of phase III trials but
» like most trials for ICX-TRC, study can take anywhere from 6-12 months.
»
» Medical/Legal Restrictions…
» I’m sure that if large companies like Aderans jumps on the Intercytex
» supplier band wagon, a few strings can be pulled to speed things up - but
» again this may take a good amount of time to resolve.
»
» Manufacturing capabilities
» Intercytex said that they are creating an automation system, - this system
» - from what I remember reading in the past - may only handle up to 200
» differing cells growing in its incubation cambers at a time. Given the 4-6
» weeks needed to culture a sufficient number of cells… - this doesn’t
» seem like much capacity considering Aderans/Bosely performs over 10,000
» procedures a year which at the time only accounted for roughly %10 of the
» HT market which further accounts as a very small fraction of those wishing
» to have their hair back.
» Assuming successful sales of Vavelta generating revenues, Intercytex will
» be able to raise more capital to build up their production capacity but
» again this will all take time.
»
» I’m sure there are others so feel free to add. I don’t mean to put a
» damper on anyone’s spirits but even if this proves to work, we will still
» have to wait. These men are smart and I have a feeling that they’ll hit
» the market as fast and as efficiently as possible.
»
» P.S. The 5 years is not my predicted ETA - I just chose it because it
» seems to be everybody’s favorite…


#7

I certainly dont think it will take 5 yrs to get HM to the market especially considering the state Intercytex r at.

4 a change it’s gonna be the brits who r gonna come up with new technology 1st which is proving to be a bitter pill 2 swallow for the our folks in the same field across the atlantic :slight_smile:


#8

» I certainly dont think it will take 5 yrs to get HM to the market
» especially considering the state Intercytex r at.
»
» 4 a change it’s gonna be the brits who r gonna come up with new technology
» 1st which is proving to be a bitter pill 2 swallow for the our folks in the
» same field across the atlantic :slight_smile:

me personally i dont care who brings it first just bring it! :slight_smile:


#9

» I’d like to bring the discussion back to HM and it possible developments.
»
» My question centers on assuming that in the next few months, HM developed
» by Intercytex will prove to be a viable solution to hair loss.
» Additionally, like ICX-RHY, ICX-TRC will be guided by less restrictive
» medical regulations allowing for limited release in the U.K. mid 2008.
»
» But it doesn’t end here - HM is not at our door step yet and there may
» still be a few years in-between before the “average Joe” (you and me) can
» go to a clinic for a procedure. I’d like to center this topic on the
» possible road blocks Intercytex faces in penetrating the mass market.
»
» Here’s a couple I’ve come up with:
»
» If limited release occurs, this will take place of phase III trials but
» like most trials for ICX-TRC, study can take anywhere from 6-12 months.
»
» Medical/Legal Restrictions…
» I’m sure that if large companies like Aderans jumps on the Intercytex
» supplier band wagon, a few strings can be pulled to speed things up - but
» again this may take a good amount of time to resolve.
»
» Manufacturing capabilities
» Intercytex said that they are creating an automation system, - this system
» - from what I remember reading in the past - may only handle up to 200
» differing cells growing in its incubation cambers at a time. Given the 4-6
» weeks needed to culture a sufficient number of cells… - this doesn’t
» seem like much capacity considering Aderans/Bosely performs over 10,000
» procedures a year which at the time only accounted for roughly %10 of the
» HT market which further accounts as a very small fraction of those wishing
» to have their hair back.
» Assuming successful sales of Vavelta generating revenues, Intercytex will
» be able to raise more capital to build up their production capacity but
» again this will all take time.
»
» I’m sure there are others so feel free to add. I don’t mean to put a
» damper on anyone’s spirits but even if this proves to work, we will still
» have to wait. These men are smart and I have a feeling that they’ll hit
» the market as fast and as efficiently as possible.
»
» P.S. The 5 years is not my predicted ETA - I just chose it because it
» seems to be everybody’s favorite…

I hope you are wrong
If it takes another 5 years they will be injecting cells into my corpse.
I am foolishly hoping that they will make a huge announcement in Sept/Oct that this product works,it’s here & ready for release some time next year.I know I am kidding myself but this is my only hope.I have battles with depression on a daily basis but the wave of depression that hits me leading up to & during the lonely Christmas period is indescribable.I don’t plan on going through it again this year.
This time next year I will either be a very happy man well on his way to redemption or fodder for maggots.


#10

» I certainly dont think it will take 5 yrs to get HM to the market
» especially considering the state Intercytex r at.
»
» 4 a change it’s gonna be the brits who r gonna come up with new technology
» 1st which is proving to be a bitter pill 2 swallow for the our folks in the
» same field across the atlantic :slight_smile:

There should be countless threads abusing you & the game for your b.s just as there was ones for Joe’s smear campaign against HM.
The fact that there aren’t just shows how desperate we all are.Very sad.


#11

» » I certainly dont think it will take 5 yrs to get HM to the market
» » especially considering the state Intercytex r at.
» »
» » 4 a change it’s gonna be the brits who r gonna come up with new
» technology
» » 1st which is proving to be a bitter pill 2 swallow for the our folks in
» the
» » same field across the atlantic :slight_smile:
»
» There should be countless threads abusing you & the game for your b.s just
» as there was ones for Joe’s smear campaign against HM.
» The fact that there aren’t just shows how desperate we all are.Very sad.

I still believe first generation will be available next year in England only.
Manchester city centre, just 10 miles away from where I live.
Ignore the Head Butcher infantry that desperately seek to convince everyone that HT is the way to go. If 2008 finishes and commercial customers have NOT been treated, make up your mind then.
Good Luck guys.


#12

It depends on what you mean by saying “HM may still be 5 years away”. I think it’s possible that we’re gonna see some kind of HM in the next five years. I do NOT believe that it will be the solution to our problem. This is gonna be a brand new kind of treatment. It will NOT be perfect. It is even a possibility that the first generation will only be used in conjunction with a hair transplant.
Successive generations of HM will be more successful. However, this will take time, and it is possible (even likely) that the first generations of HM will be expensive.
Whilst I do think that the first HM treatment might be available in the next 5 years, I do not think that there will be a treatment that “cures hairloss” in the foreseeable future. (I’m talking about a treatment that will allow you to grow a full head of hair at a reasonable price.) I think it will be at least 10 years before you can go to an HM clinic and restore your hair even if you’re completely bald.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think this is quite a realistic scenario.


#13

» It depends on what you mean by saying “HM may still be 5 years away”. I
» think it’s possible that we’re gonna see some kind of HM in the next five
» years. I do NOT believe that it will be the solution to our problem. This
» is gonna be a brand new kind of treatment. It will NOT be perfect. It is
» even a possibility that the first generation will only be used in
» conjunction with a hair transplant.
» Successive generations of HM will be more successful. However, this will
» take time, and it is possible (even likely) that the first generations of
» HM will be expensive.
» Whilst I do think that the first HM treatment might be available in the
» next 5 years, I do not think that there will be a treatment that “cures
» hairloss” in the foreseeable future. (I’m talking about a treatment that
» will allow you to grow a full head of hair at a reasonable price.) I think
» it will be at least 10 years before you can go to an HM clinic and restore
» your hair even if you’re completely bald.
» I hope I’m wrong, but I think this is quite a realistic scenario.

It depends on your requirements. If you want a teenage hairline and density (which, as I’ve said before, looks wrong on anyone over 28 years old. Unless you have the youthful features to complement it.) and you want a perfectly groomed hairline in respect of direction of growth etc, then you won’t get it. If however, you prefer a close crop with hair qquarter of an inch long or less, density and direction is not really an issue. In such a case, I believe it is possible to get full coverage of hair at a low density level, from an initial Norwood 7.


#14

I doubt HM will go through the same phases at HT did. HT came out in the 50’s. We’re in 2007 now :slight_smile: When it comes it will be impossible to distinguish between some1 who has had TRC treatnment and some1 who hasnt cos your old follicles r being reactivated. u cant ask 4 more than that can u ? :slight_smile: of course if u want more density then TRC will cater 4 that too :slight_smile:

I really feel commercialisation (restricted to certain nations) and phase II will take place place simultanously. Most of the ppl on this forum r from the US. When it comes dont just sit there and wait 4 it to come to the US. Make ur way to the UK and get it done!


#15

» It depends on your requirements. If you want a teenage hairline and
» density (which, as I’ve said before, looks wrong on anyone over 28 years
» old. Unless you have the youthful features to complement it.) and you want
» a perfectly groomed hairline in respect of direction of growth etc, then
» you won’t get it. If however, you prefer a close crop with hair qquarter
» of an inch long or less, density and direction is not really an issue. In
» such a case, I believe it is possible to get full coverage of hair at a
» low density level, from an initial Norwood 7.

Yes, eventually you will get full coverage - but probably not with the first generation of the treatment.


#16

» When it comes it will be impossible to
» distinguish between some1 who has had TRC treatnment and some1 who hasnt

I’m not saying it won’t look natural, but I don’t think you will be able to regain your original density with the first generation of HM.

» cos your old follicles r being reactivated.

I’m not sure that’s true. It may well be a combination of rejuvenation and neogenesis.

» I really feel commercialisation (restricted to certain nations) and phase
» II will take place place simultanously.

Phase II is already taking place in the UK.


#17

» Yes, eventually you will get full coverage - but probably not with the
» first generation of the treatment.

what are you basing your opinion on? or are you just assuming they won’t get it right the first time? i’m curious.

i was under the impression that the more you spend, the more coverage you can get and that the only limitations would be in the consumer’s wallet for first generation HM. the only drawback i’m expecting is most likely a steep price.


#18

» » Yes, eventually you will get full coverage - but probably not with the
» » first generation of the treatment.
»
» what are you basing your opinion on? or are you just assuming they won’t
» get it right the first time? i’m curious.
»
» i was under the impression that the more you spend, the more coverage you
» can get and that the only limitations would be in the consumer’s wallet
» for first generation HM. the only drawback i’m expecting is most likely a
» steep price.

My statements are based on assumptions; however, they are within reason. For instance, Intercytex originally claimed that they’d have preliminary results for phase II ICX-TRC during the first half of 07. Well they missed that one, along with some others but to their credit, not by much.

Understand, I have high hopes for this product and I believe they have a viable solution. But even with the best results, there will still be hurdles to overcome - capacity being one of them. (If someone else has information on this at this time, please share)

I believe Intercytex has been conservative with their statements mainly because there’s no point in getting people hyped up when at most, they’ll be able to service only a few hundred to maybe a thousand given their first year, maybe even second year. Again, I’m just assuming but it seems very logical to me. That’s why these companies (Aderans, Intercytex) claim full roll out around 2009 2010. Dont forget, those administering this product will need training, the equipment, proper guidelines, blah blah - there’s a lot of details being missed on this sites discussions. As with most things with business, I’m expecting things to take a bit longer than planned but not by much - a year, two, maybe three. Again, this all depends on how good the product is from the start.

Also, I’d like people to think about what the Game and some others had to say about the number of treatments needed. If thier statements hold true… even after the first treatment, it may take a full year for some before they get a full head of hair on their heads.

As for other solutions…at this time I don’t see anything coming up…its either Intercytex or Aderans or nothing…these posts about wounds are ridiculous. Image pushing that one through the gauntlet of medical trials.


#19

» what are you basing your opinion on? or are you just assuming they won’t
» get it right the first time? i’m curious.

It’s not so much a case of “not getting it right”, but this kind of research is still in its infancy, and I think that it would be naive to think that the first generation of HM will be perfect.
And no, I’m not just assuming: Dr. Ken Washenik said that he does not expect people to be able to grow a full head of hair with the first generation of HM.


#20

» » what are you basing your opinion on? or are you just assuming they won’t
» » get it right the first time? i’m curious.
»
» It’s not so much a case of “not getting it right”, but this kind of
» research is still in its infancy, and I think that it would be naive to
» think that the first generation of HM will be perfect.
» And no, I’m not just assuming: Dr. Ken Washenik said that he does not
» expect people to be able to grow a full head of hair with the first
» generation of HM.

No reason you can’t get full coverage, even with first gen protocol.