Follica and Acell are basically the only HM projects that are real these days, and anything truly new in the future would almost surely face the 10-year clinical trials process.
If Follica hasn’t at least started the human testing within about a year (I didn’t say finished the testing by then, just started it), then I think in all likelyhood the procedure will end up commercially dead.
We’ll probably get an idea about Acell’s efficacy for follicle regeneration inside of a year from now too.
So the way I see it, either we will hear of a real working HM inside of 2 years or HM is a total write-off. If it’s not Follica or Acell in 2009 or 2010, then the next step forward (whatever it is) probably can’t hit the market until 2025 or beyond.
In a strange way, I’m actually kind of comforted by this. At least it will end the long drawn-out torture of “probably 5 years away” that the MPB world has been suffering through for the last twenty years or more.