» icx trc was working according to them. at least the results of its phase 2
» trials were saying that.
» may be we need to re-define what ‘works’ means
TRC’s phase-I showed good numbers - which they also touted in press releases and interviews. However, they started playing dodgeball mid-way into phase-II when they realized they weren’t getting good results and started telling us about percentages.
ARI has never told has anything specific about their trials…except that they are hiring and they have reached 100th trialist etc. So just wait for results from phase-II which should definitely be out anytime during or after mid 2011 - If they decide to publish the results.
My guess is that its Not gonna be a treatment that’ll turn NW7s(like me) to a NW0-1. But when you’re NW7, even going back to NW2-3 or basically just coverage on top, that’ll stay without the big-3, will be more than enough. So I’m pretty sure even if it comes out in 2-3 years, there are many people who’re gonna whine about it. That its not the miracle cure they expected.
» Still no answers!it brings more questions as usual and i don’t understand
» this sentence " according experts" they are supposed to be THE EXPERTS in
» the field and should know when their product will be available!!!
The website says it may provide more hair.
They are not even sure that it works on the
most basic level. Why does it not say it will provide
more hair.
» The website says it may provide more hair.
» They are not even sure that it works on the
» most basic level. Why does it not say it will provide
» more hair.
STOP nitpicking the website! They can’t say it because its Not FDA approved to increase/cause hair growth.
Aderans will probably claim that phase#2 works no matter what happens. But it’s far enough into the process that we should be able to read between the lines.
We had certainly spotted the B.S. with Intercytex by that stage.
I don’t agree about the process only partially working. We have had previous treatments only moderately work but that doesn’t guarantee a continuation of that pattern with future advancements.
If they can get new hair growth from injections, AND IF THE RESULTS ARE COMPOUNDABLE, then the balding problem is most likely over for most of us. It may or may not recreate 100% teenage density, but it has to get cosmetically close or they don’t have the kind of widespread commercial product they have been working towards all these years. Either the product can take bald skin and give it full-looking coverage or it cannot.
I’ll bet not all of us though. That is one pattern about MPB treatments that I expect to be repeated. The treatments seem to work on damn near everyone in testing but in the real world there is a larger percentage of people who continue to have problems with it. Maybe lack of results or maybe the hairs don’t last long enough, etc. That is going to be a hell of a bitter pill for some people to swallow.
» If they can get new hair growth from injections, AND IF THE RESULTS ARE
» COMPOUNDABLE, then the balding problem is most likely over for most of
» us. It may or may not recreate 100% teenage density, but it has to get
» cosmetically close or they don’t have the kind of widespread commercial
» product they have been working towards all these years. Either the product
» can take bald skin and give it full-looking coverage or it cannot.
The following is from the HairSite interview on May 30, 2003:
HairSite: Since we are creating new follicles with this technique [neogenesis], does it mean that theoretically we can have more density than we were ever born?
» I don’t agree about the process only partially working. We have had
» previous treatments only moderately work but that doesn’t guarantee a
» continuation of that pattern with future advancements.
Partially working is a relevant term. It all depends on how much hair growth is achievable in any possible way. I’m a bit concerned about this procedure because the trial is listed as “Hair Transplant Study”…which gives off the idea that they might be testing it alongside a conventional HT as well. Which will reaffirm the business model Intercytex always talked about i.e. HM alongside HT.
Also, the product may add hair but may Not give the scalp a full-looking coverage, YET be approved by FDA for hair regrowth. Nowhere is ARI claiming that it will give a head full of hair, they’ve just said that theoratically it gives you an unlimited supply of donor hair cells. It still remains to be proven how effective it is.
@Iron_Man: Washenik’s response also includes the classic term “theoratically”, hair growth is still not entirely understood. Remember TRC had same claims and showed excellent potential in phase-I…heck, back in 2006 I used to think of getting a TRC procedure in 2008 and having a head full of Glorious thick hair. Alas!
if Aderans come to develop a solution for baldness, I do not think it will make it public. for the simple reason that it makes much better with wigs and grafts Bosley.
I was always optimistic, but if hair cloning will be a reality, it will not be with Aderans. For those who have hair thinned, he can wait Histogen to get better density. For a NW1-2-3, we must attempt the hair transplant. For the NW4-7, we should accept the aldness.
j’espère que je me trompe, mais ça me semble le plus proche de la réalité.
» if Aderans come to develop a solution for baldness, I do not think it will
» make it public. for the simple reason that it makes much better with wigs
» and grafts Bosley.
» I was always optimistic, but if hair cloning will be a reality, it will
» not be with Aderans. For those who have hair thinned, he can wait Histogen
» to get better density. For a NW1-2-3, we must attempt the hair transplant.
» For the NW4-7, we should accept the aldness.
» j’espère que je me trompe, mais ça me semble le plus proche de la réalité.
that must be the dumbest comment in quite a while…
» » if Aderans come to develop a solution for baldness, I do not think it
» will
» » make it public. for the simple reason that it makes much better with
» wigs
» » and grafts Bosley.
» » I was always optimistic, but if hair cloning will be a reality, it will
» » not be with Aderans. For those who have hair thinned, he can wait
» Histogen
» » to get better density. For a NW1-2-3, we must attempt the hair
» transplant.
» » For the NW4-7, we should accept the aldness.
» » j’espère que je me trompe, mais ça me semble le plus proche de la
» réalité.
»
» that must be the dumbest comment in quite a while…
I hope to be stupid and we get a cure for this baldness
Cal, what worries me beside the fact that we don’t know if it’s works it’s that they mentionned on their site only the vertex! wtf is that kind of treatment? the other part of the head are important especialy the frontal part!
<<If Aderans come to develop a solution for baldness, I do not think it will make it public. for the simple reason that it makes much better with wigs >>
Hint: Bald people aren’t the only purchasers of wigs.
» <<If Aderans come to develop a solution for baldness, I do not think it
» will make it public. for the simple reason that it makes much better with
» wigs >>
»
» Hint: Bald people aren’t the only purchasers of wigs.
Are you kidding, gmonasco?? If Aderans develops a solution for baldness, you will not be able to imagine the amount of money this company will make. Your talking billions.
» Cal, what worries me beside the fact that we don’t know if it’s works it’s
» that they mentionned on their site only the vertex! wtf is that kind of
» treatment? the other part of the head are important especialy the frontal
» part!
Hair-Quest, I just read all this stuff recently posted on HS about the ARI’s updated site and I gotta say you did in fact point out the most deeply disconcerting part of all of this. Cal and your comments seem to hold truth to me which is what makes me worry even more. Wow, there’s nothing more that can cause anxiety in a human being than uncertainty. I was hoping this thing would cure all of us for every kind of hair loss their is but the sad thing is I really don’t know if that’s gonna be the case anymore…
I wouldn’t read too much into the information posted on their website. It is bland, superficial and probably written by an outside party. Companies don’t reveal important information (especially the type we are looking for) online.
The “vertex” language is probably only intended to mean that HM will not provide the precision of hair transplants (something we all knew and accepted). HM will provide density, but transplants will still provide the most natural looking hairlines.
The “next decade” comment is not indicative of anything really. If I had to guess, that comment is purposefully generic so that the company doesn’t get in trouble for overhyping things. I mean, why in the world would Aderans even care what “experts” suggest? The scientists at Aderans ARE the experts.
Let’s put it this way, if it takes 10 years for Aderans to move past Phase 2, it is unlikely that they will ever release this procedure at all.
The good news is that they dumped Cotsarelis from the scientific advisory board and picked up Atala. Atala is pretty renowned from what I understand, and he is a lot more knowledgeable about regenerative medicine.
Overall, changes to the layout of the website aren’t going to provide any insight into the inner-workings of the company. If we are lucky Phase 2 will go well and we’ll hear about it soon via press release. If we aren’t lucky, Phase 2 won’t go well and we’ll hear about that soon too.
Any method of regrowing lost hair will earn its company several times more money than any other hair-related product they could possibly sell. Period. End of story.
Vertex or crown or hairline -
I don’t worry about this part. The center and rear half of the head are a much more consistent area to test things on as opposed to the front. The balding/recession process is slower and more predictable/consistent in the back.
Finasteride & Minox were also not tested to work on the front, but IMHO they still do.
What will and won’t be cured by HM -
IMHO the next big jump of HM will cure whatever hair problems were caused by steady ongoing MPB. Probably not other stuff.
If your body was rapidly chewing away at all the hair on your head even in the donor area for example, then I would be more doubtful about HM’s ability to stop that. It might still give you new hair but the new stuff might get eaten away like the old stuff within a few years. That may be severe issue or it may just mean you will be going back a couple times a decade for more HM work.
It’s hard to know this stuff yet. We’re really all just guessing with very limited info right now.
Experts suggest that a marketable solution is less than a decade away.
It’s crap if it takes them more than 4 years to bring this cure to market. Before we were 5 years away, now we might be 10 years away, jeeeesas christ!
If they are experts then they should give a little bit more realistic predictions. They should know exactly how long their phase 2 lasts and how many years they need for Phase 3 and FDA approval.
Expanded phase 2 should probably end next year in the summer and then they need 2 more years (?) for phase 3 and maybe one year more for FDA approval if everything goes as planned.
btw… It might take them even 10+ years because they already should be out with this cure like they predicted before and the last prediction what they removed from their site about half year ago was that it will be available by the end of the decade (by the end of 2010). Their timeline has moved several years and i won’t be surprised if they need 10+ more years.
» Their timeline has
» moved several years and i won’t be surprised if they need 10+ more years.
… and I won’t be surprised if they need 15+ more years, because the hair follicle biology is so complex. Therefore, it’s not interesting to invest money into Aderans shares too, because they’re so far away …
So DON’T BUY any Aderans Shares, because these shares are practically worthless the next DECADE+! :lookaround:
Forget about all those phony timelines and “falling behind.” It’s much easier to just focus on reality where it takes 10 years to clear the FDA.
Aderans was never any closer than this schedule and they are not any farther behind than this schedule right now. It’s not worth that emotional rollercoaster to believe every crazy-optimistic prediction somebody gives out and then get hurt & angry every time they miss one of those deadlines.
Everyone in the medical research field does this phony timeline stuff. Not just hair researchers. It’s so normal that researchers stand to get hurt by not doing it. Investors have been trained to expect faster than reality from everything now.
Guys, don’t read into the superficial jargon written on their website. Look at reality!
What a company says and what a company does are two completely different things.
Look at Follica: They SAID “If everything goes well we are 2-5 years away from a marketable solution”. 3 years later, they don’t even have a procedure to test in human trials.
Look at Aderans: They SAID “something something something, er, within a decade”. Right now they are halfway through clinical trials (traditionally a 10 year process) and just picked up another important member for their scientific advisory board.
What Aderans is DOING is exciting. So who cares what they say?
I’m not saying the Aderans procedure is GOING to work, and I’m not trying to inflate their progress thus far. The company has been notorious for expanding timelines and exaggerating accomplishments along the way (I concede these things). I’m just saying that they are our best shot, and they are still in this game.
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