Feel free to contribute quotes, etc. But here is a starting list for HM release dates from the specialists in the field. But note that by “release date” I’m assuming full-scale commercialization (I expect smaller scale commercialization will naturally be available sooner):
Jerry Cooley (HT surgeon who worked on HM): as of 2005, 5 years for research to become sound, 5 more years for general public, which would put the release date at 2014-2015
George Cotsarelis: “5 to 10 years away” for his dermabrasion plus drug combination as of 2007, which would put the release date at 2012-2017
NOTE: I could only find the following on Cotsarelis’ predictions for HM. Assuming this was published in 2005 (the latest possible date given Gho’s operation), that would put the release date from 2008-2012.
Kevin McElwee (hair loss researcher): as much as 10 years from 2004, which would put the release date at 2014 or earlier
Ken Washenik (Aderans chief scientist): “as much as 5 years” in 2004, which would put the release date at 2009
But note that in 2004 he predicted a 2007-08 release date:
Paul Kemp (Intercytex founder): “5 years” as of 2005, which would put the release ate at 2010
Martin Unger (HT surgeon who worked on HM): “at least” 10 years from 2004, which put the release date as 2014-2015… however Unger “acknowledges that Washenik and Aderans have changed the playing field by pumping millions of dollars into research”.
Robert Bernstein (HT surgeon): as of 2005, “5-10 years away”, which would put release date anywhere from 2010-2015
William Rassman (HT surgeon): as of 2007, “years”, “less than 10 years”, “possibly decades”, “greater than 10 years” or “20 years for approval”, which would put the release at 2027!
for his numerous predictions
So what is the consensus? It seems clear to me that based on the predictions of these “insiders”, HM will first be available on a small scale by 2010 with full-scale commercialization several years later.
All the best,