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Where will we be in 3-5 years? Reasons for optimism


#1

I know this has been discussed before, but I just wanted to throw it out for discussion. Where do you guys think hair restoration will be in 3-5 years? I know we’ve always heard that the cure is “5 years away”, but this is the first time in which many different companies are advancing in the field simultaneously. There are multiple companies offering different solutions. Also, with some companies, funding does not seem to be an issue. There are many doctors who are also working privately on hair regeneration. Dr. Armani told me he was working on something on the cellular level and is highly optimistic about it. He said he hopes he’ll have news very soon, possibly as early as the end of this year. This isn’t a secret as other forum members have stated the same thing. Dr. Armani told me that if something does come out, that it would rid the need to extract follicles, but the making of the incisions as well as the inserting of cells/grafts would still stay the same.

So where do you guys think we’ll be in 3-5 years? Obviously, there are no guarantees but what do you guys think about hair restoration in the near future?


#2

More than ten years that i am wondering the same question!


#3

I am afraid we will be in the same exact place as now.

Hoping for a never coming cure. Meanshile medicine will be doing incredible new things not related to hair.

We will see new scams about hairloss.

BHT will be improved (hopefully).

But no cure in sight. Maybe in a 5 years time :slight_smile:


#4

» I know this has been discussed before, but I just wanted to throw it out
» for discussion. Where do you guys think hair restoration will be in 3-5
» years? I know we’ve always heard that the cure is “5 years away”, but this
» is the first time in which many different companies are advancing in the
» field simultaneously. There are multiple companies offering different
» solutions. Also, with some companies, funding does not seem to be an issue.
» There are many doctors who are also working privately on hair regeneration.
» Dr. Armani told me he was working on something on the cellular level and is
» highly optimistic about it. He said he hopes he’ll have news very soon,
» possibly as early as the end of this year. This isn’t a secret as other
» forum members have stated the same thing. Dr. Armani told me that if
» something does come out, that it would rid the need to extract follicles,
» but the making of the incisions as well as the inserting of cells/grafts
» would still stay the same.
»
» So where do you guys think we’ll be in 3-5 years? Obviously, there are no
» guarantees but what do you guys think about hair restoration in the near
» future?

There’s no need to wonder about this. We know Aderans is the closest to commercialization, as its getting ready for phase II trials. If Aderans works, its 5-6 years out. Everything else is 7-10-100 years away. As for the “near future”, nothing will change; there’s nothing far enough along the trial pipeline that we could get our hands on within 5 years.


#5

» » I know this has been discussed before, but I just wanted to throw it out
» » for discussion. Where do you guys think hair restoration will be in 3-5
» » years? I know we’ve always heard that the cure is “5 years away”, but
» this
» » is the first time in which many different companies are advancing in
» the
» » field simultaneously. There are multiple companies offering different
» » solutions. Also, with some companies, funding does not seem to be an
» issue.
» » There are many doctors who are also working privately on hair
» regeneration.
» » Dr. Armani told me he was working on something on the cellular level and
» is
» » highly optimistic about it. He said he hopes he’ll have news very soon,
» » possibly as early as the end of this year. This isn’t a secret as other
» » forum members have stated the same thing. Dr. Armani told me that if
» » something does come out, that it would rid the need to extract
» follicles,
» » but the making of the incisions as well as the inserting of
» cells/grafts
» » would still stay the same.
» »
» » So where do you guys think we’ll be in 3-5 years? Obviously, there are
» no
» » guarantees but what do you guys think about hair restoration in the
» near
» » future?
»
» There’s no need to wonder about this. We know Aderans is the closest to
» commercialization, as its getting ready for phase II trials. If Aderans
» works, its 5-6 years out. Everything else is 7-10-100 years away. As for
» the “near future”, nothing will change; there’s nothing far enough along
» the trial pipeline that we could get our hands on within 5 years.

Hopefully Aderans will crack it by then

If nothing comes out in 5 years I will really have to learn to accept it.Have the rest of my hair lazered off,so I do not have to shave my bloody hair every day.No hair will be better than a bloody hairloss patern.I do not want a smiley face on the back of my head.

Hopefully if nothing comes out in 5 years we will all learn to accept it,and stop coming to this type of hairloss forum dreaming,hoping and waiting!


#6

Well I’ll be optimistic and say that I think we’ll have something out that can “cure” MPB within the next 5 years. When I say cure, I simply mean continuously having a full head of hair, even if MPB still remains in our genes. I think we’re getting closer with actual evidence. In the past, when I frequented this forum, everything was merely speculation and theory. Everything was also in the hands of just a few select doctors (GHO being one of them). I think we’ve come a long way in just a few years. Doctors are trying things privately, and soon, the U.S. will most likely allow stem cell research. This will give purely U.S. based doctors the option to research as well. I think HT doctors will see the benefit to this kind of surgery. It may still require making incisions and placing grafts, which means the industry won’t go out of business. It would only allow HT doctors to have a potentially unlimited supply of cells to use-- leading to better hairlines and more satisfied patients. Think about the millions of men and women who would go in for treatment that aren’t going in now for different reasons which include but are not limited to: 1) potential unnatural result 2) scarring 3) use of donor hair. I’m just going to be the optimist and say something will come out. Obviously, whether or not something comes out is in the hands of those doctors and researchers out there and not mine :).


#7

IMHO the Aderans effort holds the most reason for near-term hope right now.

IMHO the Folica effort holds just as much promise but is farther away.

When Minox and Finasteride came out, Bosley & MHR used these things as the rationale to lower their hairlines another inch and rake in a few more repeat customers. Armani’s “cellular level” stories sound like the same game to me.


#8

» When Minox and Finasteride came out, Bosley & MHR used these things as the
» rationale to lower their hairlines another inch and rake in a few more
» repeat customers. Armani’s “cellular level” stories sound like the same
» game to me.

Cal, I see your point but I disagree with it. Dr. Armani did not try to sell me any idea. It was purely a discussion that we had that did not incorporate sales. The last time I had this discussion with him, he thought HM would be about “10 years away”. This was about 3 years ago. The fact that he changed his motto is something to be positive about. Minox and Finasteride may have been used by Bosley to increase sales, but stem cells being used in HT’s are way different than Minox and Finasteride. Creating cells and having them grow is not the same concept as strengthening existing hair and potentially growing back hair that was once there.

Regardless, I do think there are other legitimate companies out there doing good stuff as well. Hopefully it’ll all translate to results soon one way or another :).


#9

»
» Cal, I see your point but I disagree with it. Dr. Armani did not try to
» sell me any idea. It was purely a discussion that we had that did not
» incorporate sales. The last time I had this discussion with him, he thought
» HM would be about “10 years away”. This was about 3 years ago. The fact
» that he changed his motto is something to be positive about. Minox and
» Finasteride may have been used by Bosley to increase sales, but stem cells
» being used in HT’s are way different than Minox and Finasteride. Creating
» cells and having them grow is not the same concept as strengthening
» existing hair and potentially growing back hair that was once there.
»
»
» Regardless, I do think there are other legitimate companies out there
» doing good stuff as well. Hopefully it’ll all translate to results soon one
» way or another :).

The Sooner would be better!:slight_smile:


#10

» Doctors are trying things privately, and soon, the U.S. will most likely allow stem
» cell research. This will give purely U.S. based doctors the option to
» research as well.

The US has never disallowed stem cell research! So nothing will really change here.


#11

Cal, I see your point but I disagree with it. Dr. Armani did not try to sell me any idea. It was purely a discussion that we had that did not incorporate sales. The last time I had this discussion with him, he thought HM would be about “10 years away”. This was about 3 years ago. The fact that he changed his motto is something to be positive about. Minox and Finasteride may have been used by Bosley to increase sales, but stem cells being used in HT’s are way different than Minox and Finasteride. Creating cells and having them grow is not the same concept as strengthening existing hair and potentially growing back hair that was once there.

Well, you’ve got a right to your opinion and so do I.

But, we’re talking about a HT surgeon who is going to beat a biological problem like HM? (Never mind the specifics of one HM idea or another, it’s basically a biological science issue and not surgical one no matter how you stack it.)

This is sorta like a car body repair man who is gonna grow a softer tree trunk to plant on the side of the road to damage cars less. He might have the idea, but I REALLY doubt that guy is gonna be the one that succeeds at doing it. He’s not likely to be the one who succeeds at genetically engineering a tree to a degree that nobody else in the entire scientific community has come even close to doing. Welding and spraying paint on sheetmetal is one thing, but genetically engineering a plant modification is something entirely different. The body man might be just as intelligent as the geneticist but their respective fields of specialization are miles apart.

Now, start with that.

Throw in the fact that Armani has been lying his ass off about his donor supply harvesting capabilities for years and years already. (I’m not open to discussing whether this point is true or not.) We’re talking about a precedent of decieving patients for the sake of increased short-term business and status within the HT industry.

Now add the fact that this “working on something at the cellular level” is the only sentence their clinic has ever put out there about the project, with absolutely NO HINT of anything more specific than this.

Then add the point that they were saying this at least 1-2 years ago as I recall (and I think the original mentioned tentative release date was something like 18-24 months away back then). There has been no elaboration on the plan or timeline talks since then . . . This is the same pattern as so many of his clinic’s other “proof is on the way” stories the clinic gives whenever proof of his claimed HT abilities is requested. They keep buying time with more promises until the skeptics just get tired of arguing about it.

My mind is made up. I’ll call him a liar until he produces something more concrete.


#12

FckHrls said it all. Aderans is closest to failing now. And they are more than 5 years away.


#13

» So where do you guys think we’ll be in 3-5 years?

I hope I’m not cremated.


#14

» FckHrls said it all. Aderans is closest to failing now. And they are more
» than 5 years away.

If their stuff works, then Aderans is 5 years away:

End of phase 2 clinical trials by the end of this year.
Phase 3 starts 2011.
Phase 3 ends 2012.
Market - 2013 - 2014.

Unlike ICX, Aderans is well funded and conducted a lot of pre-clinical research. They have no reason to futz around and can move ahead much faster if their brand of HM shows good results.

If it does not, then who knows.


#15

Accell deserves to be in the conversation though. It could theoretically work tomorrow.

We’ve seen the failure of exactly one test, and it was while trying a worst-case scenario.


#16

Don’t forget PRP and related technologies. PRP is not that far from Folica theoretically: wounding the skin, then using injections to modify the skin’s healing response. If Drs like Greco and Jones keep tweaking away, they may hit on something… and medical procedures that use already approved drugs do not require approval by the FDA. Off-label use is fine as long as the companies selling the drugs do not try to market them for another indication.

» Accell deserves to be in the conversation though. It could theoretically
» work tomorrow.
»
» We’ve seen the failure of exactly one test, and it was while trying a
» worst-case scenario.


#17

» Don’t forget PRP and related technologies. PRP is not that far from Folica
» theoretically: wounding the skin, then using injections to modify the
» skin’s healing response. If Drs like Greco and Jones keep tweaking away,
» they may hit on something… and medical procedures that use already
» approved drugs do not require approval by the FDA. Off-label use is fine as
» long as the companies selling the drugs do not try to market them for
» another indication.
»
»
»
» » Accell deserves to be in the conversation though. It could
» theoretically
» » work tomorrow.
» »
» » We’ve seen the failure of exactly one test, and it was while trying a
» » worst-case scenario.

If anything works, short term, it’ll probably be Follica. With the recent hiring of that new CEO, one has to think that something might be in store, if the guy is truly a “bring products to market” expert.


#18

I personally think the best option in here is the further development of BHT - moving facial hair up to the scalp, if it is viable, then it’s a good solution for many men who have a lot of facial hair. It’s not the cure-all but I think it’s a good step up.


#19

» I know this has been discussed before, but I just wanted to throw it out
» for discussion. Where do you guys think hair restoration will be in 3-5
» years? I know we’ve always heard that the cure is “5 years away”, but this
» is the first time in which many different companies are advancing in the
» field simultaneously. There are multiple companies offering different
» solutions. Also, with some companies, funding does not seem to be an issue.
» There are many doctors who are also working privately on hair regeneration.
» Dr. Armani told me he was working on something on the cellular level and is
» highly optimistic about it. He said he hopes he’ll have news very soon,
» possibly as early as the end of this year. This isn’t a secret as other
» forum members have stated the same thing. Dr. Armani told me that if
» something does come out, that it would rid the need to extract follicles,
» but the making of the incisions as well as the inserting of cells/grafts
» would still stay the same.
»
» So where do you guys think we’ll be in 3-5 years? Obviously, there are no
» guarantees but what do you guys think about hair restoration in the near
» future?

Sorry I don’t have time to read all the posts in the board but “when” did Armani tell you that ? Was it this year or last year or two years ago?

Just curious because these predictions seem to change quite rapidly from year to year.


#20

» Sorry I don’t have time to read all the posts in the board but “when” did
» Armani tell you that ? Was it this year or last year or two years ago?

He told me this a month ago.