I would like to know when will the big companies will show us information, as Intercytex did when they finished phase II. Follica, Aderans, Histogen, etc.
And I already know that this has been discused so many times, but this is a really bad hair day for me… so, I would really appreciate a good discussion (with facts and stuff) about how many years away is the silver bullet.
I personally think that Aderans is the closest one. I’m definitely not an expert, but I read that they have an improved technique that intercytex did not or something like that.
So what do you think? (please don’t be too pesimistic, it hurts as hell)
Aderans is due to finish its phase II trials near the end of this year, so they may have some announced results at the beginning of 2010. Then they’ll have one trial left, with about 4 years to market. Unlike ICX, Aderans is well funded.
ICX already proved that HM works to some extent, therefore it’s only a matter of making things better, i.e. more consistent, thicker hair. Fundamentally it works. If it works well, but there are a lot of problems passing it through the FDA anyway, then HM will be done in some foreign country without the restrictions because there will be high demand for it.
At first HM may not provide perfect results, but it may provide a HUGE improvement over the status quo.
» Aderans is due to finish its phase II trials near the end of this year, so
» they may have some announced results at the beginning of 2010. Then
» they’ll have one trial left, with about 4 years to market. Unlike ICX,
» Aderans is well funded.
»
» ICX already proved that HM works to some extent, therefore it’s only a
» matter of making things better, i.e. more consistent, thicker hair.
» Fundamentally it works. If it works well, but there are a lot of problems
» passing it through the FDA anyway, then HM will be done in some foreign
» country without the restrictions because there will be high demand for it.
»
» At first HM may not provide perfect results, but it may provide a HUGE
» improvement over the status quo.
I think i can understand why all hairloss forums are crowded with overpessimistics or overoptimistics. Trying to figure out if there is going to be a hairloss cure is not just curiosity or scientific interest. You are trying to decide if you are going to keep hoping or just let it go and live with it.
Anyway my money is on a 10 year timeframe. Things seem to be working but need improvement and there is much research going on. 10 years in the dawn of the 21st century means rapid progession. Just imagine where the health industry was 10 years ago at '99. Aids was lethal (it is not considered lethal today just long-term serious disease like diabetes). FUE surgery was stil under development and so were many things that we now take for granted. 10 years hold much to come and HOPEFULLY one of these will be a hair loss cure.
» Aderans is due to finish its phase II trials near the end of this year, so
» they may have some announced results at the beginning of 2010. Then
» they’ll have one trial left, with about 4 years to market. Unlike ICX,
» Aderans is well funded.
»
» ICX already proved that HM works to some extent, therefore it’s only a
» matter of making things better, i.e. more consistent, thicker hair.
» Fundamentally it works. If it works well, but there are a lot of problems
» passing it through the FDA anyway, then HM will be done in some foreign
» country without the restrictions because there will be high demand for it.
»
» At first HM may not provide perfect results, but it may provide a HUGE
» improvement over the status quo.
I’m curious how ICX has shown that HM is conceptually viable.
» I’m curious how ICX has shown that HM is conceptually viable. From what
» I’ve seen it looks like <>
ICX has shown it through a phase II FDA trial. What exactly have you seen?
» I think i can understand why all hairloss forums are crowded with
» overpessimistics or overoptimistics. Trying to figure out if there is going
» to be a hairloss cure is not just curiosity or scientific interest. You are
» trying to decide if you are going to keep hoping or just let it go and live
» with it.
Personally, I don’t think there is much point giving up hope at this point because much real progress has been made. HM is not going to be here tomorrow, but it’s a strong possibility for the next few years. HM is not nearly as nebulous as say, spinal cord injury cure, as some on this forum make it seem.
I think its fair to say the silver bullet is at_least 4 years away. This is so, because FDA trials and all the beraucracy involved.
Its likely to take more though in case it does not work or does not work well enough. In that case they’d need to be trying more and more things, and that will add up some time to it.
It is also likely tocost a fortune (at least for the first couple of years)… IF… it rly works very well.
Ignore the budhistic religious ideas, focus on the main principle of living NOW, being fully conscious and feeling and hearing and seeing and processing every bit of information thats happening inside of you and around you NOW. That means you wont be thinking about future nor past, it also means, you will see that there are solutions to your problem that exist now. because of the constant fear and anxiety (thats a byproduct of not living in now), you just didnt see them.
The simple principle in this book, can heal you from fear and anxiety in matter of weeks. Without these emotions you should see that there are no real problems, only the ones that your mind creates for you. … You should also see that you will be able to deal with ease even with the most difficult things.
All you need, is to rly WANT NOT to be anxious and frozen with fear anymore.
It is likely you wont use this advice, you wont read the book, or you will just refuse to apply the principle (I WANT MY HAIR GODDAMIT I DONT WANT ANY POWER OF NOW BULLSHT … i can totaly hear that :)). In that case, You have willingly chosen to live in fear and anxiety. And it wont end any time soon. Realize the fact you are making this choice.
BTW I’m not endorsing any religion. I’m atheistic/agnostic myself. The main principle in the book is very good though.
» » I’m curious how ICX has shown that HM is conceptually viable. From what
» » I’ve seen it looks like <>.
» ICX has shown it through a phase II FDA trial. What exactly have
» you seen?
ICX is not, and has never been, in FDA trials. We’re talking about a British company here.
» They can be from Mars and still be in FDA trials. If they want to market
» in the US then their clinical trials need to be FDA compliant.
They Don’t have to market it in US, almost every guy here is willing to travel to UK if TRC/proto-hairs work. I Know it doesn’t work as per everybody’s expection but if it gives permanent hairs, then it’s still better than anything we have/know of.
» » They can be from Mars and still be in FDA trials. If they want to
» market
» » in the US then their clinical trials need to be FDA compliant.
»
» They Don’t have to market it in US, almost every guy here is willing to
» travel to UK if TRC/proto-hairs work. I Know it doesn’t work as per
» everybody’s expection but if it gives permanent hairs, then it’s still
» better than anything we have/know of.
It’s true that they don’t have to. But they want to, especially since they sold an option to Bosley.
Overall, I feel about the same way for all the HM operations, and even for most other MPB products of any kind too:
Phase#2 is everything.
Phase #1 is mostly proving that the stuff isn’t unsafe for humans to try at all. Anything in phase#3 is already working and unlikely to be yanked for safety or a lack of effectiveness.
» Overall, I feel about the same way for all the HM operations, and even for
» most other MPB products of any kind too:
»
» Phase#2 is everything.
»
»
»
» Phase #1 is mostly proving that the stuff isn’t unsafe for humans to try
» at all. Anything in phase#3 is already working and unlikely to be yanked
» for safety or a lack of effectiveness.
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