Supply and demand

Stem cell; cell based hair therapy
1

The research news is interesting but we need to have realistic expectations regarding price and availability. All products, even HM, have to obey the law of supply and demand.

TRC is a bespoke product not mass production of identical doses, and this will limit supply. Demand, though, will be enormous. Initially, Intercytex won’t be able to supply everyone who wants HM. They can’t supply more than they can produce. They will have to match supply to demand by price or waiting list. There’s no other way of doing it.

Intercytex, or Aderans for that matter, will not set a low price and have to manage an enormous waiting list, probably stretching out years, when they can command a higher price for the product. They could launch in only one country but that is just another form of waiting list.

Initially, Intercytex could produce, say, 10,000 treatments a year. If price wasn’t an issue, demand would be in the tens of millions. Even if they could produce 100,000 treatments a year and demand was from only 1,000,000 men, that’s still a fair old waiting list. First off, you can easily imagine it will be high price and waiting list.

Gradually, more supply will come on stream. Intercytex and Aderans may open production facilities in Asia or US, and new players may arrive. The price and waiting list will then fall. That’s a few more years away though.

We’re all interested in how the research is going but production capacity is at least as important

2

» We’re all interested in how the research is going but production capacity
» is at least as important

you should be way more interested n whether the product will be viable

do not count your chickens yet

3

» » We’re all interested in how the research is going but production
» capacity
» » is at least as important
»
» you should be way more interested n whether the product will be viable
»
» do not count your chickens yet

they say on their website that even dermatologists will be able to do it. i think there wont be a problem with supply.

we should be more concerned if it comes out and if it does, when?

4

» » » We’re all interested in how the research is going but production
» » capacity
» » » is at least as important
» »
» » you should be way more interested n whether the product will be viable
» »
» » do not count your chickens yet
»
» they say on their website that even dermatologists will be able to do it.
» i think there wont be a problem with supply.
»
» we should be more concerned if it comes out and if it does, when?

we should be more concerned that it works

5

This issue is why I get so tired of the heated debates about exactly when HM will first get sold.

Phase#III in 2008, sale in 2009, maybe 2010 . . . what’s the difference? It doesn’t matter how many YEARS that HM has already been on the market if they still haven’t gotten through the first list of millionaires yet.

6

» This issue is why I get so tired of the heated debates about exactly when
» HM will first get sold.
»
» Phase#III in 2008, sale in 2009, maybe 2010 . . . what’s the difference?
» It doesn’t matter how many YEARS that HM has already been on the market if
» they still haven’t gotten through the first list of millionaires yet.

If this procedure really works, it’s just a matter of (short) time. It would be great if there IS a “cure” (or working treatment…). The market handles the rest. There are several teams out there, which are close to an solution. 5 years? 10 years? That doesn’t really matter. Millions of guys out there are waiting for something like this. Millions of guys means millions of dollars.
Perhaps you can treat 100000 rich guys for 100.000 each…but there is a huge market for perhaps 100 Million+ men in the western world. 100 Million*10000 means? Yep…much money. A company MUST develope a sufficient infrastructure. It is always a tightrope walk between few patients with much money ore many patients with less money. In my opinion the real market consists of these “less money” guys.

7

Of course the market is ultimately more profitable when you scoop lower in the income bracket and treat the middle class. I wasn’t arguing against that.

But when HM first hits there is no way they can start selling it to everyone who demands it. It’ll take them at least a couple of years to get the ball rolling no matter what. And during those early years, when supply of HM is limited, big money will almost surely rule who is getting it.

8

» Of course the market is ultimately more profitable when you scoop lower in
» the income bracket and treat the middle class. I wasn’t arguing against
» that.
»
» But when HM first hits there is no way they can start selling it to
» everyone who demands it. It’ll take them at least a couple of years to
» get the ball rolling no matter what. And during those early years, when
» supply of HM is limited, big money will almost surely rule who is getting
» it.

Maybe. But on the other hand there will be enough competition out there, so that this time should not be overlong. And even if you are right, in my opinion it would be comforting to know, that the solution is out there. That there IS a potential treatment. HM will be improved year for year. It is not the end of the world to wait just 1 oder 2 years more. The main thing is, that such a treatment is out there and not “5 years” away :wink:

9

» Maybe. But on the other hand there will be enough competition out there,
» so that this time should not be overlong. And even if you are right, in my
» opinion it would be comforting to know, that the solution is out there.
» That there IS a potential treatment. HM will be improved year for year. It
» is not the end of the world to wait just 1 oder 2 years more. The main
» thing is, that such a treatment is out there and not “5 years” away :wink:

Exactly. I’d rather be it expensive cure that I can’t afford then just another rogaine alternative. The day it’s out there and first celeb gets full head of hair is the day we can start counting down and know that it will sooner or later reach even us.

If only it worked out like this :slight_smile: