» Apparently, they have money but just for the skin products.
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» Well, if my new guessings are right, maybe we are lucky if they find
» someone to pay the bills.
» But of course, this is a big setback.
The economy in England is on a similar fast track to recession as the American economy due to their sophisticated banking structures (unlike Asian banks, which are sheltered from the current market fallout due to their lack of sophistication). This translates to money being more difficult to get (for ICX) and stock prices taking a beating in the immediate future. So this helps to infringe upon the already tight cash-flow of a startup biotech with a very radical vision for the future. I believe ICX prefers to continue development of this product, but the reality is that they need to start generating some form of income soon or the entire company will sink. Successful product development has just as much or more to do with business realities as it does scientific realities. The story of the Gho Clinic is a testimony to this with the main difference being ICX also tapped its ability to generate public funding.
Gho foresaw ICX in every step of this journey to date, and his journey reads like a prophetic prediction of ICX’ fate. I was hoping that the large amount of cash ICX generated through public funding would lead them to a different outcome, but much of that has been swallowed up developing their more immediate products.
There are risks involved in continuing development, and ICX can’t assume the risk due to the risks they have in every other product they are developing. Thus, they are trying to spread the risk by collaborating with another company. This will allow them to concentrate their cash on their more immediate products in an attempt to get some money rolling through the door to fund future development and increase investor confidence.
ICX believes the risk of TRC not being commercially marketable is low, so that is a good sign. However, the results are obviously not yet amazing enough to bring in the the money they need to push this product to phase III. Gho showed us how this game works. You get the hair to grow, but you can’t get it to grow consistently. Then your investors start to complain they need an immediately marketable product to generate a return on investments. At this stage, Gho turned to the less than stellar FM. In a similar manner, ICX is turning to other products in its pipeline that are hopefully more desirable than FM turned out to be.
My opinion is that we are seeing history repeat itself. Gho did not fail purely for scientific reasons. He failed mostly due to business pressures and realities. ICX is being forced into a similar corner.
The good news is that the product grows increased hair on most or all people that use it (but so did Gho’s version). In that respect, it is unique from everything else in the marketplace except for perhaps FM/HST. The biggest question is who wants to assume the risk of continuing to develop this product and partner with ICX?
The most important deviation from what we are seeing with ICX and Gho is that Gho lost the rights to sell his HM related research when he reached this stage of the game. ICX has managed to maintain it’s rights to its HM product and can place it in the marketplace for any interested party to pick up. It is important to realize ICX is not looking to throw the product away. They are looking for a HT company to help fund the research and figure out how best to use the product. Due to the extreme limitations of HT that are directly addressed by TRC, it does not require a large stretch of the imagination to foresee this research being picked up and brought through to commercial success. The potential market is well into the billions. But we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
The news is lackluster. I see no other way to portray it in light of the fact that this product cannot be marketed without the successful completion of phase III. My biggest question is whether ICX is going to be portrayed in the same unfair manner Gho was portrayed in when his efforts fell short? Will Kemp turn into a common four-letter word. Will he be accused of pumping TRC in order to generate public funds for skin products? I’m curious to see just how hard people retaliate, and I fully expect to see it surface at some level.
Okay, that’s worst case scenario. Maybe best case is that a HT company will pick it up as is and offer it offshore (while continuing development in the lab). This will allow the 25% of patients that respond well to the treatment to get their hair back immediately. The other 75% are stuck with standard HT with a little added thickening. Sound implausible? I’d pay 3 grand to find out if I could get my hair back. Wouldn’t you? And on top of that, even if you only get a little thickening, it still beats HT. All in all, not a bad business model as most of us would fly over and take our chances as long as a few people had amazing success. The bonus would be that the company would have massive data on the process and know exactly how deviating laboratory results could be turned into successful treatment results. Gho once made the statement about his own HM product, “I could market it right now, but it’s not perfect yet.” His business manager begged him to put it on the market as is and take his chances. IMO, ICX’ product could probably be marketed right now by an intelligent CEO with a keen understanding of bald men’s needs and desires. I think even my lame arse could turn this into a huge success, and I lack business skills. Imagine what others can do with the product.