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Put your money where your mouth is: HM in 3 years or you leave

I’m tired of seeing people fight over HM. So put your money where your mouth is. You can bet two ways. If HM isn’t available commercially in 3 years, you leave the board. The other bet is, if it is available, you leave the board. Just put your name and which bet you’re taking. I’ll start.

Skiploss, 3 years or under.

The only real “fighting” I ever see about HM is coming from those who are very convinced that it’s a long way off.

Those in favor of a sooner HM timeframe can get overly optimistic sometimes, but I don’t see the major rancor about the issue coming from them very much.

Longer than 3 years

» Longer than 3 years

definately less than 3 years. ICX finishes phase 2 this spring, and just 1 more year for phase 3 and maybe 1 more year for commercial development.

This is a timeline for clinical trials for a recently approved Drug,

from the date of the beginning of Phase 1 clinical trials, which is in 1992, it took 10 YEARS, for the drug to come to market

why should HM be any different…

as far as I can determine by the results, the Drug, Herceptin, was already known to be effective in limited testing, before the clinical trials began. The testing was to determine side effects, potential dangers, and of course to validate that the drug did work

I would say that given the complexity of cell therapy , that ICX will have an even more involved and lengthy timeline since they are trying to GET IT TO WORK, and are in the processes of developing the treatment as the testing is being conducted. It is not as if they have a drug which has already been developed, and they are testing for effectiveness and side effects. They are not even at that point yet, they are attemping to develop a technique as the testing progresses, and the technique changes as test results come back. This could take much longer than getting a previously developed drug , run through Clinical trials and FDA approval

the plot thickens

sure does not sound like a few years to me

debris, anyone on this board going from advanced norwood to full thick elvis, will take more than 5 years.

Oh, christ . . .

The date that the first human gets the first commercially-sold new hair follicle on their head is NOT the same date that we’ll all be getting Elvis-like heads of hair for a few thousand bucks!

Will you people EVER debate this issue apples-to-apples???

This discrepancy covers about 2/3 of all the online disagreements about HM’s timeframe.

yeah that’s why I tried to be accurate this time :slight_smile:

I think that no one really cares about one follicle here. I have lost thousands and many here are aproaching 60k lost mark.

btw I believe that ICX could bring something comparable to HT’s in less than 3 years from now on. this won’t happen this year though. the second trial might end this year but that’s unfortunatelly not enough.

everything depends on the results of phase II. if phase II data was weak, we might need to wait another 5 years.

The first case of a human buying any new hair whatsoever from ICX is probably within 3 years.

Elvis-hair for all of us at an affordable clinic within driving distance? That’s probably still a lot farther away. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re waiting at least 5-10 years for HM to do that.

If 16 week data is to be anounced by the end of march, then 48 week data can be expected some time in december 2008 or january 2009.

if phase III was skipped (which I do not see any evidence for as even them now seem to state that they are targeting 2010 as the earliest) then we could have it by the end of 2009. if not then add extra 2 years at least.

I put most importance to the quality of results and not the time though. Thus I’d like it to be a real all mighty cure rather then cheap 2009 just another minoxidil.

» I put most importance to the quality of results and not the time though.
» Thus I’d like it to be a real all mighty cure rather then cheap 2009 just
» another minoxidil.

The “cheap 2009 just another minoxidil” option sounds fine with me as long as the real quality cure is still coming within 4-5 years anyway.

and that’s something no one can guarantee :slight_smile:


I don’t think it’s very likely that they’re gonna suddenly just stop working on the process as soon as they release their first commercial form of it.

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