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HM - 10 years away?


I went to see a dermatologist who specialises in hair & scalp conditions today (because of my chronic scalp pain). It turns out I have a cyst. (Bummer!) While I was there I asked the good doctor what he thinks about HM. He said that it is a very exciting technology, but in his opinion it won’t be available to the general public for another 10 years.
He was actually quite enthusiastic about the prospects of HM. He seemed to be quite clued up on it as well, and he definitely does not have a “hidden agenda”. He is not a HT surgeon.


» but in his opinion …



Another 10 years with shiny scalp standing alone under shiny disco ball


I am sure of that, but we are 10 years away for PERFECT results in HM, for first results worldwide, or at least Europe no more than 5 years.
It is the same about the Myopia surgery around 198… don´t remember, it had results but not as good and safe as actual results.


» I am sure of that, but we are 10 years away for PERFECT results in HM,

I think that’s what he meant by “available to the GENERAL PUBLIC”. I think it’s likely that we’re gonna see a limited release a lot earlier, but the day when every Tom, Dick and Harry can go to an HM clinic and get a full head of hair (even if they’re bald as an egg) is probably at least 10 years away.


10 Years since I replied in this post, and it is all the same.
Was I too optimistic? Or Am I still optimistic to think a cure will soon appear?


it used to be 5 years away now its ten years away … been hearing this for the last 150 years
its utter rubbish never happen


25 years ago I thought the cure was 5-10 years away. In these years progress zero. Not even a way to stop balding.

Now I think the cure is at last 30-50 years away and I am probably too optimistic.


what is MD?


Medical Doctor. Do you mean, what is HM?

HM is “hair multiplication”. A brief history…

HM 1.0 - Dr. Coen Gho, 1996 to about 2011, researched and tried to develop a cell-based treatment which could be used by HT surgeons to restore hair. Investment by Dutch venture capital firm ABN-Amro, opened up clinics in the Netherlands, Spain, and Czech Republic, but efforts failed. Still has a clinic in the Netherlands but never has been able to prove more than minimal new hair growth.

HM 2.0 - Early 2000s - Intercytex (UK) and Aderans (Japan and USA) - two well-funded companies initiate human clinical trials of a cell-based treatment using Dermal Papilla cells. Trials continue for years with no demonstrable results. Both efforts fail, and both companies cease operations.

HM 3.0 - Replicel/Shiseido (Canada and Japan), Dr. Tsuji (Japan), Dr. Fukuda (Japan), Dr. Terskikh (Sanford-Burnham Research Institute, California), USC and UCLA (California), HairClone/Dr. Kemp (UK), as well as various research institutes in China and S. Korea - all efforts to develop a cell-based treatment for hair loss, currently underway. Various stages of development, all but Replicel still pre-clinical trials stage. To date, only Replicel has reported (phase I) results.


Have heart, gentlemen. Take a look at my post today. We’re more likely looking at three to five years.


Earlier than that…aim for 6 mths
Dr. A


Can you elaborate please? Do you know something?? Another crazy scientist like Dr. Nigam discovers the cure for hairloss?


He’s talking about my post: http://www.newsweek.com/chemical-mcdonalds-fries-may-cure-male-baldness-study-say-799439

But I think it’s gonna have to go through clinical trials first. Three years.


Actually I saw several articles where Dr. Fukuda supposedly said that it will probably be 5 years before they even start human clinical trials of this McDonald’s fries compound/hair follicle germ procedure… and an ADDITIONAL 5 years to get from clinical trials to approval and the market. (The articles didn’t quote Dr. Fukuda directly on that, they just paraphrased him, and it was unclear if those comments were actually his, but they implied he made those projections.)

I don’t know what the basis of those predictions (5 + 5 years) is. Supposedly Japan has greatly streamlined and liberalized regulatory policies for cell-based medical procedures, making potential regulatory approval much quicker. Sort of like a fast-track to trials and approval. But Dr. Fukuda seems to be basing his predictions on the old regulatory scheme (or the US procedure of going through the FDA). I wonder why he’d do that.

Also, Dr. Fukuda might not totally understand that his procedure is PRECISELY the kind of treatment that big investors would be interested in. That is, because it’s not only patentable, but once patented, it can be legally protected because it’s not just a medical procedure, but a PROCESS for making hair follicle germs. Both the in vitro follicle germination process and the medical treatment can be patented, but ONLY the patent for the lab process to grow the HFGs can actually be protected. That’s because in most major industrial countries, doctors can copy a medical procedure patented by another doctor, and cannot be successfully sued for copying it. BUT, anyone who infringes a patent for a laboratory procedure can be SUCCESSFULLY sued for patent infringement.

That has been the law in the USA ever since 1996, and is currently the law in the EU and many other countries.

That’s why one doctor can’t sue another doctor for copying, say, a specific type of HT technique, or any other medical procedure.

Am I the only person who has ever posted here on HairSite, or any other hair loss forum, who knows about this law? I never hear anyone else mention it, but IMO it is the #1 reason why big biotech investors won’t invest much money in most HM type discoveries, such as Follica, Replicel, etc. (Note: interestingly, both Follica AND Replicel developed some sort of medical device – which I am certain were developed to get around this issue in patent law.)

Dr, Fukuda’s discovery is NOT JUST a HM procedure, it is also a technique for creating HFGs outside the body, in the lab, so any patent of this procedure would be protectable and this would dramatically increase the valuation of Dr. Fukuda’s enterprise.


I am bound by non disclosure agreement but you know me… first I will give you the proof before collecting fees. You know me… so please don’t compare me with any frauds.
I told you because you asked.
Dr A


not enough by itself


Is this patient now haired?
Is bht a long-term treatment?


This has nothing to do with Dr. Fukuda’s method of creating HFGs.



I remember you discussing int’l patent rights years ago, back in the intercytex days. I think Dr. Proctor may have addressed it, but can’t remember if that was here or alt.baldspot way back in the late '90s.

Here’s a link to the patent: