A guy posted an excerpt from an interview with Dr. Vera Price (involved with Follica) that took place on October 1st 2008. This is an excerpt from the article he says:
An excerpt:
"Dr. Price believes that we will see new developments in medical treatment, but nothing will be on the market over the next five years. However, she adds, “Progress is being made on many different fronts to interrupt this process.”
On the horizon
Spironolactone, a medication used to treat high blood pressure, is an androgen receptor inhibitor, and it has an anti-male hormone effect. As such, it has received attention as a possible treatment for female pattern hair loss. Dr. Price, says, however, “No one has done a controlled study, but from all of our observations with patients, I have not found it to be effective in regrowing hair.”
Stem cell research is also looking into ways to promote hair growth in women and men with thinning hair. But again, Dr. Price says, significant results in patients won’t be seen for quite some time. “I think we’ll have new medical treatments for androgenetic alopecia before we see any applicable results from stem cell research,” she explains."
It is obvious that 5 years is an optimistic estimate. If aderans succeeded and basically faced no obstacles from now on, it could be on the market in 5 years now, in theory. Probability of this happening is rather low (<10%) There are always obstacles. Everything else seems more then 5 years away atm.
Just stick with propecia / dut and get a ht. or get old bald.
» It is obvious that 5 years is an optimistic estimate. If aderans succeeded
» and basically faced no obstacles from now on, it could be on the market in
» 5 years now, in theory. Probability of this happening is rather low (<10%)
» There are always obstacles. Everything else seems more then 5 years away
» atm.
»
» Just stick with propecia / dut and get a ht. or get old bald.
Yeah, I have to agree with you on this one debris. I was very optimistic before about the stem cell treatments, that they might be out before 5 years, but now when one of the best doctors in the field said that and also a HT doctor that is pretty famous where I live also stated the same (he is kind of up to date with research that is going on), I’m starting to believe it. It is a new and untested technology with many obstacles.
» A guy posted an excerpt from an interview with Dr. Vera Price (involved
» with Follica) that took place on October 1st 2008. This is an excerpt from
» the article he says:
»
» An excerpt:
» “Dr. Price believes that we will see new developments in medical
» treatment, but nothing will be on the market over the next five years.
» However, she adds, “Progress is being made on many different fronts to
» interrupt this process.”
»
» On the horizon
»
» Spironolactone, a medication used to treat high blood pressure, is an
» androgen receptor inhibitor, and it has an anti-male hormone effect. As
» such, it has received attention as a possible treatment for female pattern
» hair loss. Dr. Price, says, however, “No one has done a controlled study,
» but from all of our observations with patients, I have not found it to be
» effective in regrowing hair.”
»
» Stem cell research is also looking into ways to promote hair growth in
» women and men with thinning hair. But again, Dr. Price says, significant
» results in patients won’t be seen for quite some time. “I think we’ll have
» new medical treatments for androgenetic alopecia before we see any
» applicable results from stem cell research,” she explains.”
»
» Here is the link to the post (one of the latest posts in the bottom):
» Informa Connect - Know more, do more, be more.
Yes- what Dr. Price laid out does seem to imply bad news, however it seems to contrast Zohar’s attitude towards all the “timelines” being on track. This was stated after statements from Dr. Price. Who knows.
Gotta say i am not entirely convinced about this article! Surely people at Follica are educated enough to realise that as soon as you say 5 years everyone will just assume the whole thing is rubbish! And what is it about that timeline???
Why not 4 years or 6 years??? What would happen in 5 that couldnt happen in 4??? Its a very strange number to give!
The worrying thing is that Zohar thinks 2-3 years, and others have stated differently then is Follica as a company all on the same page?? People have questioned ICX management but if random members of the Follica team are coming out and stating different timelines then surely you have to question them as well! Are they divided? Do they talk to eachother? Is the product so far off that they dont have a clue when to say?
If i am being honest though i would never have expected a product from them this year or maybe next! Some results from human testing would be enough in my opinion for the year!
What are the different phases of human clinical trials that an experimental drug for hair loss must pass through
There are 4 key phases within a human clinical trial that an experimental drug must pass through before being accredited for use by the FDA in the USA. European countries also require a similar process.
Phase I study: This is the earliest phase of drug development in humans. This is usually a short term duration study of one to three months It involves a small, well-controlled population of usually healthy volunteers to establish the safety of the drug’s use in humans.
Phase II study: A study of short to medium duration (up to a six months) using a larger number of drug takers. This phase is primarily used to define dose and establish effectiveness of a drug for a specific population and disease. Phase II studies are the first to use patients with the disease or condition the drug is intended for. The treatment trial is typically a randomized, well controlled, double blind study.
Phase III study: The duration of phase three studies may last up to several years for chronic diseases such as androgenetic alopecia. The studies may involve several thousand individuals. The intention is to demonstrate the drug is statistically effective against the disease and to ensure it can be used safely for a prolonged period of time.
Phase IV study: These studies are not conducted until after the FDA has approved a drug product. These studies must be conducted if the FDA approves the drug prior to the collection of all conclusive premarketing data (e.g., “fast tracked” studies). Phase IV may also be called post-marketing studies. These studies are ongoing and may involve a range of age or ethnic groups. The data derived from these studies may be used to support expanded claims for approved drugs.
I’ve said this before and i’ll say again I do not beleive any type of hair multiplication will be available in the next 20 years. I think in the 20-30 year range we’ll see something. The best we could hope for in the next 5-10 is products to help current methods (like scarless healing acell, juvista etc) but hair multiplication is decades away.
» I’ve said this before and i’ll say again I do not beleive any type of hair
» multiplication will be available in the next 20 years. I think in the 20-30
» year range we’ll see something. The best we could hope for in the next 5-10
» is products to help current methods (like scarless healing acell, juvista
» etc) but hair multiplication is decades away.
In other words get a hair transplant or go bald boldly - let rip!
I’ve tried getting used to shaving head,etc.I’d still jump at a chance of getting on Intercytex’s ICX-TRC trial 3 if it happens.I might one day take the risk and get HT,a big maybe!
» I’ve said this before and i’ll say again I do not beleive any type of hair
» multiplication will be available in the next 20 years. I think in the 20-30
» year range we’ll see something. The best we could hope for in the next 5-10
» is products to help current methods (like scarless healing acell, juvista
» etc) but hair multiplication is decades away.
Sadly I think it’s true. People that hang on the words from Cotsarelis “if everything goes perfectly, we could have something on the market in 3-4 years”, they miss out the word “perfectly” in that comment. That is often how scientists say in order to guard themselves against failuers. They have a long way ahead of them. Even the investors said: this is a very early and a high risk project for us.
I would just like them to publish some data soon so that we really know and can judge on our own how much time it probably will take.
» » I’ve said this before and i’ll say again I do not beleive any type of
» hair
» » multiplication will be available in the next 20 years. I think in the
» 20-30
» » year range we’ll see something. The best we could hope for in the next
» 5-10
» » is products to help current methods (like scarless healing acell,
» juvista
» » etc) but hair multiplication is decades away.
» Sadly I think it’s true. People that hang on the words from Cotsarelis “if
» everything goes perfectly, we could have something on the market in 3-4
» years”, they miss out the word “perfectly” in that comment. That is often
» how scientists say in order to guard themselves against failuers. They have
» a long way ahead of them. Even the investors said: this is a very early and
» a high risk project for us.
»
» I would just like them to publish some data soon so that we really know
» and can judge on our own how much time it probably will take.
So what we are doing is taking what Cotsarelis says and times it by 5 and coming up with a more accurate prediction??? Somehow i think he may know a little more about it than us! And if it doesnt go ‘perfectly’ then maybe double the prediction or treble it! Dr price said at least 5 years! No one knowledgeable has said 20!!! Do you really think they would have invested so heavily in the last round if they thought they wouldnt have had a product for another 20years!?
Plus Zohar said they were moving as quickly as possible! So if they werent then would it have taken 40 years???!!! They realised that investing more money would speed things up!
At the end of the day saying 20 years, 5 years, 4 months or whatever is a complete guess by us lot because we are not involved in the process! Its all just speculation!
quote Dr Price - “I think we’ll have new medical treatments for androgenetic alopecia before we see any applicable results from stem cell research,…”
Isnt Follica trying to find a stem cell based solution for Hair loss ?? If thats true, doesnt this statement screw the whole ‘elevator pitch’ to potential series C investors in Follica ??
In case thats not true, or if it is, i think this statement is from the horse’s mouth - I really had hopes that theyd be out with something in 2011/2012; Now its confirmed - theres nothing within the 5 yr margin. Im really down right now, this is not a problem i should have to face at this age.
» A guy posted an excerpt from an interview with Dr. Vera Price (involved
» with Follica) that took place on October 1st 2008. This is an excerpt from
» the article he says:
»
» An excerpt:
» “Dr. Price believes that we will see new developments in medical
» treatment, but nothing will be on the market over the next five years.
» However, she adds, “Progress is being made on many different fronts to
» interrupt this process.”
»
» On the horizon
»
» Spironolactone, a medication used to treat high blood pressure, is an
» androgen receptor inhibitor, and it has an anti-male hormone effect. As
» such, it has received attention as a possible treatment for female pattern
» hair loss. Dr. Price, says, however, “No one has done a controlled study,
» but from all of our observations with patients, I have not found it to be
» effective in regrowing hair.”
»
» Stem cell research is also looking into ways to promote hair growth in
» women and men with thinning hair. But again, Dr. Price says, significant
» results in patients won’t be seen for quite some time. “I think we’ll have
» new medical treatments for androgenetic alopecia before we see any
» applicable results from stem cell research,” she explains.”
»
» Here is the link to the post (one of the latest posts in the bottom):
» Informa Connect - Know more, do more, be more.
» » » I’ve said this before and i’ll say again I do not beleive any type of
» » hair
» » » multiplication will be available in the next 20 years. I think in the
» » 20-30
» » » year range we’ll see something. The best we could hope for in the
» next
» » 5-10
» » » is products to help current methods (like scarless healing acell,
» » juvista
» » » etc) but hair multiplication is decades away.
» » Sadly I think it’s true. People that hang on the words from Cotsarelis
» “if
» » everything goes perfectly, we could have something on the market in 3-4
» » years”, they miss out the word “perfectly” in that comment. That is
» often
» » how scientists say in order to guard themselves against failuers. They
» have
» » a long way ahead of them. Even the investors said: this is a very early
» and
» » a high risk project for us.
» »
» » I would just like them to publish some data soon so that we really know
» » and can judge on our own how much time it probably will take.
»
»
» So what we are doing is taking what Cotsarelis says and times it by 5 and
» coming up with a more accurate prediction??? Somehow i think he may know a
» little more about it than us! And if it doesnt go ‘perfectly’ then maybe
» double the prediction or treble it! Dr price said at least 5 years! No one
» knowledgeable has said 20!!! Do you really think they would have invested
» so heavily in the last round if they thought they wouldnt have had a
» product for another 20years!?
»
» Plus Zohar said they were moving as quickly as possible! So if they werent
» then would it have taken 40 years???!!! They realised that investing more
» money would speed things up!
»
» At the end of the day saying 20 years, 5 years, 4 months or whatever is a
» complete guess by us lot because we are not involved in the process! Its
» all just speculation!
Yes it’s true, it’s just speculation. I didn’t mean explicitly 20 years or something, but with very high probability it will take more than 5 years. Maybe around 2015-2018 or something, but again, just speculation. But what I want to point out with this comment is that stem cell treatments seem to be pretty far away. There are many issues, which is exactly what these scientists want to say. Maybe a breakthrough comes tomorrow, who knows, but one cannot read articles in newspapers that are overly positive often and believe scientists at early stages stating that the work is great etc., since many of them do so in order to get funding and “sell” their research to the public.
» I’ve said this before and i’ll say again I do not beleive any type of hair
» multiplication will be available in the next 20 years. I think in the 20-30
» year range we’ll see something. The best we could hope for in the next 5-10
» is products to help current methods (like scarless healing acell, juvista
» etc) but hair multiplication is decades away.
pretty sensible post, and people should remember that if the new treatments are going to be based on new follicle formation ( like follica ), then a HT will be obviously necessary.
» pretty sensible post, and people should remember that if the new
» treatments are going to be based on new follicle formation ( like follica
» ), then a HT will be obviously necessary.
Huh? What do you mean? Am I on the crazy pill? The Follica method is based on follicle neogenesis in situ. Why would you want a HT in such a case?
The rest of the speculation concerning timelines in this thread is really pointless IMHO. No matter when we argue that the cure will be out, it will not change the date that it actually comes. We can all agree it will come out in exactly 12.0415235 years, and still it will not influence the date even by one day. How could a timeline discussion on an internet forum somehow change the reality of when a cure arrives?
The only thing we can do to influence the date is experiment as much as possible and share info about our results. If we are extremely lucky, we might find something useful ourselves. Also, contacting relevant docs/organizations/companies, like Willy did with ACell, can be helpful.
» » pretty sensible post, and people should remember that if the new
» » treatments are going to be based on new follicle formation ( like
» follica
» » ), then a HT will be obviously necessary.
»
» Huh? What do you mean? Am I on the crazy pill? The Follica method is
» based on follicle neogenesis in situ. Why would you want a HT in such a
» case?
You could just carefully fade out the front edge of the wound at the hairline. And fade the topically-treated area to match.
That would probably come out as well as a lot of HT work. You could combine that + a few hundred grafts of conventional FUE work and it would probably look awesome for very little transplantation.
» » The Follica method
» » based on follicle neogenesis in situ. Why would you want a HT in such a
» » case?
»
» you need it to create a hairline
Ah! Well, since you can easily control where you wound, I’m not convinced a HT should be necessary. And I would guess the natural propensity to create new follicles where there used to be hair is higher than on other parts of the body. So the hairline might be slightly “self-regulating” so to speak. Naturally, that’s just speculation on my part. At any rate, I think it is far to early to state that a HT is obviously needed. If it turns out it is indeed needed, it will be a relatively small HT anyway.
It would be preferable to find method that requires at least about 5-10 repititions to go from bald to hairy. Any method that is quicker than that would be suboptimal, IMO. Actually, if such a method was found, the formula should be “diluted” so that one could control exactly how/where hair grows. But I’m getting ahead of reality here…
They have something that works. They just don’t want another company to discover what they utilizing to activate these stem cells. If someone could only hack their system!!! No one is going to invest millions of dollars into a company based on hope. They must have shown some type of results.
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The Follica method is based on follicle neogenesis in situ. Why would you want a HT in such a case?