» Should take about a year to finish phase 2 of the trials.
Well phase 2 is the most important part. It will prove how well it works, noone should get excited now, we have seen these phase 1 and 2 trials all the time.I remember even tricomin finished phase 2 and that was it, it wasn’t that good for investors to through in money for a phase 3 trial. So they skipped phase 3 and started selling it, but i am sure noone has more hair from tricomin than propecia or rogaine. Phase 3 separates the “i think i see a new hair on my temple that wasnt there before” from “propecia slowed my hairloss, i have rogrowth on the crown and my hair look so healthy and alive again”
The main point is if you see something going into phase 3, then there is 99% chance we have a REAL WORKING SOLUTION, a solution that is expected to bring profit to the investors.
All these phase 1 and phase 2 are relatively cheap trials to perform so its not such big news that these companies do them. They are hoping that the results are so good that the product will sell. And if it isn’t… well at least they tried, its not as if they lost millions. Dont get excited just because they go to phase 2, no-one stops at phase 1 unless there are serious side-effects
ICX-trc didn’t impress anyone,so the phase 3 is highly unlikely… why Aderans should be different?..i honestly dont know… but for sure they are gonna try to see if they get it better than ICX, why not? they have the funding ready they have to at least try it. but just because they are trying it doesn’t mean they gonna do it…
keep a very very small basket… many tried before and didn’t do it, Aderans is a long shot as well…a shot that they have to take anyhow since all these years money was poured into this effort all because the hype was great with stem cells and many people wanted to invest there so these companies took off and gathered all the necessary money for… taking long shots. But the money needed for phase 3 is a whole new ball game, there is no long shots there… investors will want to see if the long shot did it to invest many more so that they can get back even more…so if they get that money we will all have far more donor than before
Keep in mind, Aderans is affiliated with Bosley and Aderans has claimed that funding is not an issue. Hopefully we’ll see successful results with phase 2.
» Keep in mind, Aderans is affiliated with Bosley and Aderans has claimed
» that funding is not an issue. Hopefully we’ll see successful results with
» phase 2.
muscle boy it doesnt matter where funding comes from, it can be outside investors or investors that negotiated the rights of first offer like bosley did. That doesn’t change anything from what i said the only difference is that Bosley-aderans have priority if they decide to invest further since its aproduct from within the company
Bosley as a business awaits for the result to decide if it is worth investing more…just like outside investors would want.
for me there are three scenarios
The product works very well, bosley funds the phase 3 trials and every thing is nice and good.(dream scenario )
the product doesn’t work so well and have some minimal sideeffects, they either skip phase 3 or proceed with it and Bosley hopes that with good marketing and advertising they will promote and bring more customers to the doors. We stay here and some of us are happy others have some sides or lack of growth and complain and curse the product(bad scenario becuse they will give us hope and propably many people will loose money and still fight with hairloss)
3.The product works minimal, bosley doesn’t want to invest and they try to sell the research to someone else in hope that he can do better (the worst scenario)
they will publish the results once the phase 2 finishes…we just have to wait and see.
I am very optimistic that we will see something new that will change the field of hair restoration to the better, i dont think it will be a cure but it will help hair transplants overcome their nemesis(not enough donor). there are so many companies involved. Me i wouldnt think of a transplant if you are 30 and under…something will come and its better to be a virgin scalp when it gets here.
You know what many of us hate hair transplants but if density is available and donor is not an issue we will see transplants-HM of 15000 grafts as a norm. Put some gel in hair with that much density and if someone can tell you had a transplant you can come and kick me in the butt
right now there are some kick ass resuts on people with many native hair, the main problem is how and if you can hold on to that hair and what happens if you cant hold on to them.
TheGreek, I agree that we will most likely have something to help restore hair in combination with traditional hair transplants pretty soon. Whatever comes out will take away the issue of insufficient donor hair. Might it produce 100,000 hairs? I don’t know. Will the hair fall out in another 18-25 years after it begins to feel the impacts of DHT? Who knows? But it would provide an infinite number of hairs that would not have been possible with traditional transplants. And even if the hairs become susceptible to DHT in 18 years, you can still create more hair at that point.
Going back to Aderans, the company has spent over 5 years researching hair regeneration. Their phase 1 was very extensive and they tried to get the best possible experimental product before starting up. They had all the thinking laid out over 5 years ago, but are just starting phase 2 this year. This to me says that they obviously had hurdles to overcome, but that they also did a lot of extensive research, perhaps more than any other company has up until this point. This doesn’t guarantee success in phase 2, but it at least raises the potential for success.
Seems that these guys has troubles cloning hair and they don’t bring nothing to the market any recent years.
I read their website fully several times and there were written before: “We anticipate that patients will have access to hair multiplication technology by the end of the decade, and will enjoy the convenience of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic procedures.”
And now i checked their website again and they have changed this sentence: We anticipate that patients will in coming years have access to hair regeneration technology, and will enjoy the convenience of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic procedures.
This can mean only that they don’t have any ideas exactly when hair cloning can became available. They have delayed several times before (the last time when they promised to bring HM on the market was 2007?) and seems they are doing this again. “In coming years” can mean 10, 20, 50, … years.
» I read their website fully several times and there were written before:
» “We anticipate that patients will have access to hair multiplication
» technology by the end of the decade, and will enjoy the
» convenience of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic
» procedures.”
»
» And now i checked their website again and they have changed this
» sentence:
» We anticipate that patients will in coming years
» have access to hair regeneration technology, and will enjoy the convenience
» of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic
» procedures.
»
» This can mean only that they don’t have any ideas exactly when hair
» cloning can became available. They have delayed several times before (the
» last time when they promised to bring HM on the market was 2007?) and seems
» they are doing this again. “In coming years” can mean 10, 20, 50, …
» years.
»
» What do you think guys?
Obviously if they are finishing up phase II in a few months (around the end of this year) then they’re not going to market by the end of the decade. If phase II finishes on time, with one more phase to go that means they’ll have something out in about 4 years. Unless Aderans runs out of money (unlikely) or their technology doesn’t grow ANYTHING (unlikely) they’ll have something that grows some hair out by then.
So far, progress on their clinical trials has been good, especially as compared to ICX. They got stuck a little getting the science squared away in the pre-clinical phase, and hence the delay from “by the end of the decade” to “in coming years”. I think this is encouraging since it shows they wanted to get things right before going into clinical trials, unlike ICX.
» » I read their website fully several times and there were written before:
» » “We anticipate that patients will have access to hair multiplication
» » technology by the end of the decade, and will enjoy
» the
» » convenience of same-day office visits, much like the most common
» cosmetic
» » procedures.”
» »
» » And now i checked their website again and they have changed this
» » sentence:
» » We anticipate that patients will in coming years
» » have access to hair regeneration technology, and will enjoy the
» convenience
» » of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic
» » procedures.
» »
» » This can mean only that they don’t have any ideas exactly when hair
» » cloning can became available. They have delayed several times before
» (the
» » last time when they promised to bring HM on the market was 2007?) and
» seems
» » they are doing this again. “In coming years” can mean 10, 20, 50, …
» » years.
» »
» » What do you think guys?
»
» Obviously if they are finishing up phase II in a few months (around the
» end of this year) then they’re not going to market by the end of the
» decade. If phase II finishes on time, with one more phase to go that means
» they’ll have something out in about 4 years. Unless Aderans runs out of
» money (unlikely) or their technology doesn’t grow ANYTHING (unlikely)
» they’ll have something that grows some hair out by then.
»
» So far, progress on their clinical trials has been good, especially as
» compared to ICX. They got stuck a little getting the science squared away
» in the pre-clinical phase, and hence the delay from “by the end of the
» decade” to “in coming years”. I think this is encouraging since it shows
» they wanted to get things right before going into clinical trials, unlike
» ICX.
if you read the mens health article that was posted in this forum, what there are doing did NOT work on a mouse. So I dont think they got there pre trails right.
Thats what makes follica technique more impressive. Human hair on human skin. Yes it was on a mouse, but they understand that the immune system has to be suppressed. I don’t think these other companies understand this.
Lucy holds the football on the ground in kicking position. Charlie Brown believes maybe this time she won’t yank it when he tries to kick it, and makes a run at it.
A company makes a prediction of getting through the FDA trials in much less than a decade. People believe it will really happen that way instead of taking the decade that it always does.
Thanks krapok for tracking ARI’s website evolution.
Its ovious that ARI is having delays.
But in spite of this, they are launching phaseII trials. And unlike ICX crappy trials, ARI’S trial is a multicenter trial with approx 100 trialists. They must have something solid, IMO.
In the meantime, I don’t have any reason to think that Follica has something solid. At least not yet. They lied about that blazing fast “proof of concept trial”, and that is no good.
My hopes are on ARI now.
» Seems that these guys has troubles cloning hair and they don’t bring
» nothing to the market any recent years.
»
» I read their website fully several times and there were written before:
» “We anticipate that patients will have access to hair multiplication
» technology by the end of the decade, and will enjoy the
» convenience of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic
» procedures.”
»
» And now i checked their website again and they have changed this
» sentence:
» We anticipate that patients will in coming years
» have access to hair regeneration technology, and will enjoy the convenience
» of same-day office visits, much like the most common cosmetic
» procedures.
»
» This can mean only that they don’t have any ideas exactly when hair
» cloning can became available. They have delayed several times before (the
» last time when they promised to bring HM on the market was 2007?) and seems
» they are doing this again. “In coming years” can mean 10, 20, 50, …
» years.
»
» What do you think guys?
You might be right but it’s still hard to believe that they bring HM on the market soon. I believe that they changed deadline to “coming years” because they don’t have any idea when this cure gonna be ready for all of us. The end of the decade is 2010 and they already changed deadline 1.5 years earlier. This is really bad news in my opinion. “Coming years” doesn’t tell anything. We knew already before that this probably will come on the market in coming years but when exactly (?), this is the big question. Coming years can mean freely after 25 years or whatever the number is
Take a look at this page:
and you can see what this doc thinks about hair cloning and what he heard at the annual ISHRS hair doctor convention. Seems they didn’t gave on this hair convention any promising news about HM… sucks
I don’t expect hair cloning to ever work. Researchers have tried for to long with very minimal results. Follica is your hope. Their latest patent attempt proves they have something that works. Why would you develop an application apparatus for something that has not been proven? They must have a lot of confidence in their discovery. One question, did any of the follica team attend this meeting?
Thank you krapok.
Rassman’s words are interesting, as he has attended the ISHRS. I don’t know if he is right or not, but so far, his “negativity” has been quite successful at predicting reality.
I am going to copy here his post about this:
I just got back from the annual ISHRS hair doctor convention (this year was in Amersterdam), and that very same question about cloning was asked to the experts who where on a panel that I chaired. The answer is that there is no cloning in the near future. I’ll write more about the ISHRS meeting in a future post this week.
My honest opinion is that cloning is still a decade away from being available to the public. They’re making progress, but even the clinical trials seem not to be working as hoped. If you follow message boards, some believers will tell you to give it another year or two… but that’s a moving timeline. I’ve been reading it’ll be available in “5-10 years” for at least the past decade. If you believe that someone has the answer, please let me know as it might just be good marketing hype.
You won’t see results in just 4 months of Propecia use, but stick with it. The most common question I get from 18 year olds on Propecia is about hair loss in the hairline. I don’t know what your hair loss is like, but keep in mind that full regrowth isn’t a benefit of the medication that you should be expecting. Just stopping the hair loss where it’s at is benefit enough. The peak benefits of Propecia takes 2 years and the gain in the second year slowly appears.
<<<<<<
» You might be right but it’s still hard to believe that they bring HM on the
» market soon. I believe that they changed deadline to “coming years” because
» they don’t have any idea when this cure gonna be ready for all of us. The
» end of the decade is 2010 and they already changed deadline 1.5 years
» earlier. This is really bad news in my opinion. “Coming years” doesn’t tell
» anything. We knew already before that this probably will come on the market
» in coming years but when exactly (?), this is the big question. Coming
» years can mean freely after 25 years or whatever the number is
» >>>>
» I just got back from the annual ISHRS hair doctor convention (this year
» was in Amersterdam), and that very same question about cloning was asked to
» the experts who where on a panel that I chaired. The answer is that there
» is no cloning in the near future. I’ll write more about the ISHRS meeting
» in a future post this week.
»
» My honest opinion is that cloning is still a decade away from being
» available to the public. They’re making progress, but even the clinical
» trials seem not to be working as hoped. If you follow message boards, some
» believers will tell you to give it another year or two… but that’s a moving
» timeline. I’ve been reading it’ll be available in “5-10 years” for at least
» the past decade. If you believe that someone has the answer, please let me
» know as it might just be good marketing hype.
»
» You won’t see results in just 4 months of Propecia use, but stick with it.
» The most common question I get from 18 year olds on Propecia is about hair
» loss in the hairline. I don’t know what your hair loss is like, but keep in
» mind that full regrowth isn’t a benefit of the medication that you should
» be expecting. Just stopping the hair loss where it’s at is benefit enough.
» The peak benefits of Propecia takes 2 years and the gain in the second year
» slowly appears.
» <<<<<<
These ‘experts’ on the pannel he chaired happened to be Bessam Farjo(oversaw ICX trials) and Coen Gho(promised HM years ago), who we all know failled at his attempts.
It’s a safe bet that Aderans haven’t given any info to Rassman about their current trials.
Follica certainly have not disclosed any information to Rassman.
Histogen presented their 5 month data at the conference and the data so far looks very good, but Rassman chose to ignore that point in his post (probably because technically what follica and histogen are doing is not hair clonning, but on the other hand what ICX and adernas are doing is not cloning but multiplication which seems to be exceptably interchangable phrases in hair restoration).
His 10 years away statement maybe true for traditional HM attemts, but companies with tottaly different approaches such as Histogen and Follica seem to believe their treatment could work out sooner, I would be more inclined to believe the information streight from the horses mouth so to speak, rather than HT doctors who are trying to make a sale.
If you talk about actual cloning of hair, it will be decade away. But if you are talking about cell based hair treatment, it shouldn’t take that long. In fact, we already have some kind of cell based hair treatment available now, take a look at what Greco and Jones are doing with platelet rich plasma, it is a kind of cell based treatment.
» Histogen presented their 5 month data at the conference and the data so
» far looks very good, but Rassman chose to ignore that point in his post
» (probably because technically what follica and histogen are doing is not
» hair clonning, but on the other hand what ICX and adernas are doing is not
» cloning but multiplication which seems to be exceptably interchangable
» phrases in hair restoration).
No way. Histogen didn’t present the 5-month data, but rather the old 12 week data. I asked Dr. Naughton via email, about this point, but she didn’t answer to this question in her reply (she said she would answer later, with an official answer, but I am still waiting).
I think Washenik was also at the conference, I don’t know if he intervened. Anyone knows?
» If you talk about actual cloning of hair, it will be decade away. But if
» you are talking about cell based hair treatment, it shouldn’t take that
» long. In fact, we already have some kind of cell based hair treatment
» available now, take a look at what Greco and Jones are doing with platelet
» rich plasma, it is a kind of cell based treatment.
What Greco and Jones - I believe they are just having people over,desparate people,but time will tell.
As for other cell based treatment.Aderans upto now are the only ones who are running large trials,with all the expenses involved,so they must believe they are onto something.
Hair Multiplication or Hair cloning are already being overtaken rapidly by what Follica are doing. I’m not worried one bit by what Rassman or any other clown involved in hair transplants has to say, they’re sounding more and more desperate to cling on to their relevance.
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