@jarjarbinx – If you mean a true breakthrough that 1, will be able to restore a full head of hair, or very close to it, and 2, that will be commercially available, I am NOT optimistic anymore.
It’s very positive that there are so many developments that seem to be near-breakthroughs… like the recent experimental findings by UCLA about lactate. But, it seems that many of these discoveries are announced, a certain level of hype builds up, there is the inevitable flurry of news articles in British tabloids, showing a picture of the head of a bald man, and announcing a new “cure for Male Pattern Baldness sufferers”, and just as quickly, these discoveries fade away into oblivion, as months and then years go by and we never hear another encouraging word from these researchers on their discoveries. They seem to fall into a black hole.
A major inflection point will come SOON with Replicel. Of all the companies out there that say they’re developing some kind of medical hair loss cure/treatment, Replicel is actually the only one, to my knowledge, that has publicly announced a timeline for rollout of their product on the market (in their case, first it would be the Asian market).
As far as PolarityTE/SkinTE, they have announced a timeline for release, but haven’t specifically said their product will be used to treat hair loss (my guess is they’ll need additional review from the FDA for that – just because they don’t need further FDA approval to use it for burns and skin wounds, doesn’t mean the FDA won’t require additional review and separate approval for them to use it for hair loss). Even if they pursue that, I’m not convinced the product as it currently exists, will be able to regenerate enough hair to make it market worthy.
So, I think the first moment of truth in the next 3 years will be with Replicel – unless something truly amazing breaks with lactate, which is doubtful.
And Replicel isn’t looking too good, because the ONLY trial results they’ve released so far were incredibly disappointing – no better, really, than Finasteride, and for most trial subjects, probably worse.
So overall, I think, barring some amazing discovery by someone, things don’t look too good for the next 3 years.