That’s not even true, because we have heard predictions from companies many times just like that. Aderans and Intercytex, as well as Follica and most recently, Replicel, regularly made announcements “with confidence” (whatever that means) that they’d have a procedure available on the market in specific amounts of time… we’ve heard everything from “1 year” to “2 years” to “3-4 years”, and very often “5 years”.
These companies are not magic, they are not performing with magic wands, and everyone just has to use their own knowledge and common sense to determine what is credible and what is likely BS and click bait.
Dr. Fukuda’s claims as well as the form of procedure he’s using, to mass produce hair follicles in the lab from constituent cells, appear to be credible. But even Dr. Fukuda allegedly said it’ll be “10 years” before this is on the market. Yet he already has a patent for a large part of the procedure.
If that’s what he really said, and it’s not just some reporter putting words in his mouth, that can only mean 2 things:
- He’s giving an honest projection of how long it will take to get this whole thing through the regulatory authorities. Yes, Japan has fast-tracked and streamlined its regulatory process. But remember, this particular procedure involves using human stem cells, which are the most strictly regulated “biological” around the world. Part of the strict regulation of stem cells around the world is that the US FDA has actively influenced other countries’ policies, by meeting with them and attempting to coordinate and synchronize regulations, in an effort to control what they regard as fraudulent claims by many clinics promoting stem cell “cures” to a lot of diseases, and also the fact that stem cells from certain sources (such as embryos) are very controversial especially with the US religious community – which has held back stem cell research in many areas (although I don’t know where Dr. Fukuda is getting his stem cells from – are they HF stem cells?);
- Dr. Fukuda may be trying to distract or discourage potential competitors by predicting this technology will be successful only in “10 years”. He may be a lot closer to clinical trials and getting this on the market in Japan than that. It’s possible that his 10 year prediction is an intentional effort to exaggerate the problems he expects, so that others don’t try the same thing. That would give him a big jump on everyone else.
I’d like to think I’m wrong about the above, but I think these are the 2 most likely possibilities.